Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NDSU wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
WYO
Games
4
Plays per game
60.2
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-12.7 (116th, offence 126th, defence 80th)
Returning production
23% (pass 3%, rush 81%, receiving 20%)
NDSU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
7.8 (45th, offence 54th, defence 33rd)
Returning production
— (pass —, rush —, receiving —)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WYO
NDSU
pass rate, all downs
45%93rd
40%121st
pass rate, standard downs
44%52nd
32%123rd
pass rate, 1st down
44%63rd
29%129th
no-huddle share
4%134th
8%125th
pass rate, red zone
42%49th
36%78th
pass rate, passing downs
49%129th
58%96th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.318th
30.240th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WYO offence
WYO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.156
241
71 of 138
success rate
0.461
241
52 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.088
241
128 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.148
241
61 of 138
rush: success rate
0.465
241
55 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
241
116 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.161
241
91 of 138
pass: success rate
0.440
241
70 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.330
241
124 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.503
241
58 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
241
38 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.556
241
15 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.140
241
39 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
241
2 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.958
241
122 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
241
86 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
241
79 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.062
241
91 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.100
241
78 of 138
NDSU offence
NDSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.157
260
70 of 138
success rate
0.400
260
107 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.414
260
15 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
260
99 of 138
rush: success rate
0.349
260
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.081
260
25 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.377
260
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.485
260
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.794
260
20 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
260
103 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
260
101 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.826
260
107 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.191
260
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
260
97 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.083
260
60 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.115
260
32 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
260
28 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.046
260
54 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
260
72 of 138
WYO defence
WYO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.123
262
95 of 138
success rate
0.443
262
109 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.091
262
23 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.133
262
110 of 138
rush: success rate
0.462
262
115 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.850
262
41 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.198
262
85 of 138
pass: success rate
0.425
262
95 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
262
48 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.503
262
114 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.288
262
80 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.263
262
119 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
262
21 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.923
262
134 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.957
262
45 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
262
26 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.076
262
33 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.053
262
46 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
262
89 of 138
NDSU defence
NDSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.156
240
5 of 138
success rate
0.392
240
68 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.024
240
9 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.231
240
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
240
67 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.705
240
14 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.030
240
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
240
67 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.438
240
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.488
240
100 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.184
240
4 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.646
240
51 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
240
48 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
240
68 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.722
240
4 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
240
101 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.104
240
77 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.079
240
112 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
240
97 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs