Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HAW wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
HAW
Games
4
Plays per game
74.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-12.2 (114th, offence 111th, defence 108th)
Returning production
65% (pass 91%, rush 21%, receiving 52%)
WYO
Games
4
Plays per game
60.2
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-12.7 (116th, offence 126th, defence 80th)
Returning production
23% (pass 3%, rush 81%, receiving 20%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
HAW
WYO
pass rate, all downs
68%1st
45%93rd
pass rate, standard downs
61%1st
44%52nd
pass rate, 1st down
61%2nd
44%63rd
no-huddle share
36%93rd
4%134th
pass rate, passing downs
79%5th
49%129th
pass rate, red zone
67%2nd
42%49th
seconds per play (own drives)
25.6126th
31.318th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
HAW offence
HAW offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.042
297
112 of 138
success rate
0.384
297
117 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
297
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
297
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
297
85 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.869
297
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.117
297
105 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
297
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.274
297
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
297
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
297
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.138
297
65 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
297
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
297
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.190
297
113 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
297
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
297
110 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
297
87 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
297
23 of 138
WYO offence
WYO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.156
241
71 of 138
success rate
0.461
241
52 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.088
241
128 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.148
241
61 of 138
rush: success rate
0.465
241
55 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
241
116 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.161
241
91 of 138
pass: success rate
0.440
241
70 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.330
241
124 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.503
241
58 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
241
38 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.556
241
15 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.140
241
39 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
241
2 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.958
241
122 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
241
86 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
241
79 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.062
241
91 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.100
241
78 of 138
HAW defence
HAW defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
268
124 of 138
success rate
0.466
268
126 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.227
268
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.250
268
131 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
268
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.031
268
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.130
268
70 of 138
pass: success rate
0.435
268
103 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
268
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.526
268
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
268
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.437
268
134 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.110
268
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
83 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.773
268
98 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
268
30 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
268
29 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
268
65 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
268
117 of 138
WYO defence
WYO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.123
262
95 of 138
success rate
0.443
262
109 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.091
262
23 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.133
262
110 of 138
rush: success rate
0.462
262
115 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.850
262
41 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.198
262
85 of 138
pass: success rate
0.425
262
95 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
262
48 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.503
262
114 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.288
262
80 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.263
262
119 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
262
21 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.923
262
134 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.957
262
45 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
262
26 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.076
262
33 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.053
262
46 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
262
89 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs