Line has moved -0.5 since we first saw it (HAW -3 to HAW -2.5).
Betting
Spread
HAW favouredMarket HAW −2.5Ours HAW −8.8
WYO favouredgap 6.3 toward HAW
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| HAW away | -2.5 | 23.5 | -125 | 53.2% | 54% |
| WYO home | +2.5 | 21.0 | +105 | 46.8% | 47% |
| Total | 44.5 | |
HAW -3 when first seen, now HAW -2.5 · total 45.5 then, 44.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| HAW away | -9.0 | 26.6 | 72.1% | -6.5 |
| WYO home | +9.0 | 17.9 | 27.9% | +6.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| HAW away | -3.0 | 24.8 | 58.0% | -0.5 |
| WYO home | +3.0 | 22.1 | 42.0% | +0.5 |
| Total | 46.9 | | | +2.4 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | HAW | WYO |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +0.459th | -4.3107th |
| Defence (cards) | -0.679th | -2.0118th |
| Card team rating | -0.364th | -6.3113th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -12.2114th | -12.7116th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.7116th | -0.7118th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -1.0114th | -1.0116th |
| Card line | WYO +8.8 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 65% | 23% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Micah Alejado HAW82 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.100
Completion60.2%
TD–INT3-1
Pass attempts, median game45
Pass yards, median game249
Rush yards, median game-3
Games this season4
Team throws per game46.5
Tyler Hughes WYO75 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.187
Completion62.2%
TD–INT2-5
Pass attempts, median game25
Pass yards, median game161
Rush yards, median game39
Games this season4
Team throws per game24.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| HAW away | 1-3 | 25% | -8.8 | 1-3 | -5.8 |
| WYO home | 1-3 | 25% | -7.8 | 1-3 | -5.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | War Memorial Stadium · turf · 7219 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 69°F, wind 13 mph, rain 0.01 in |
| Rest | HAW 13 days · WYO 7 days |
| Travel | HAW 3322 miles, body clock 9:00am at kickoff, +7153 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| HAW | T. Griffiths WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Griffiths is dealing with an undisclosed injury and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the San Jose State |
| HAW | P. Ashlock WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ashlock is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period. |
| HAW | C. Barfield RB | probable Ankle | Sat, Sep 26 | Barfield is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is projected to suit up against Wyoming on Saturday. |
| HAW | I. Jaramilla-Phe QB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Jaramilla-Phe is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Wyoming on Saturday. |
| HAW | A. Hickman TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Hickman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Wyoming on Saturday. |
| HAW | M. Alejado QB | questionable Arm | Sun, Sep 13 | Alejado is nursing a arm injury, and it is uncertain if he will kit up against Wyoming on Saturday, September 26th. |
| HAW | D. Heimuli WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 13 | Heimuli is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Wyoming on Saturday, September 26th. |
| HAW | O. Salave'a TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 13 | Salave'a sat out the game due to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will kit up against Wyoming on Saturday, September 26th. |
| HAW | R. Haynes IV WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 3 | Haynes IV is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| WYO | K. Washom WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Washom is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Hawaii on Saturday. |
| WYO | D. Hubbard RB | questionable Knee | Sat, Sep 12 | Hubbard is nursing with a knee injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Central MI on Saturday, September 19th. |
| WYO | T. Nystrom WR | out Knee | Tue, Aug 11 | Nystrom has been out of lineup due to knee injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season. |
| WYO | T. Hasselbeck QB | out Knee | Tue, Aug 11 | Hasselbeck has been out of commission due to knee injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season. |