Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MEM wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
MEM
Games
4
Plays per game
63.5
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
2.3 (63rd, offence 33rd, defence 97th)
Returning production
6% (pass 2%, rush 0%, receiving 11%)
NAVY
Games
3
Plays per game
69.0
Drives per game
10.7
SP+
-3.7 (85th, offence 78th, defence 95th)
Returning production
14% (pass -3%, rush 19%, receiving 15%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MEM
NAVY
pass rate, all downs
43%107th
23%136th
pass rate, standard downs
37%106th
15%135th
pass rate, 1st down
41%85th
20%134th
no-huddle share
83%41st
28%103rd
pass rate, passing downs
59%93rd
42%136th
pass rate, red zone
44%37th
11%135th
seconds per play (own drives)
25.9124th
30.728th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MEM offence
MEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.262
254
36 of 138
success rate
0.472
254
46 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.370
254
21 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.182
254
45 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
254
64 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.008
254
53 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.545
254
12 of 138
pass: success rate
0.514
254
24 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.828
254
16 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.516
254
46 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.353
254
46 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.464
254
24 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.148
254
45 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
254
67 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.609
254
32 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
254
42 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
254
25 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.059
254
82 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
76.900
254
1 of 138
NAVY offence
NAVY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.211
207
57 of 138
success rate
0.512
207
17 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.141
207
114 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.339
207
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
207
3 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
207
38 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.235
207
138 of 138
pass: success rate
0.283
207
137 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.798
207
18 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.615
207
3 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.254
207
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.825
207
8 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
207
7 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.957
207
3 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.750
207
22 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.164
207
100 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.116
207
121 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
207
58 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
207
36 of 138
MEM defence
MEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.180
275
117 of 138
success rate
0.418
275
89 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.400
275
124 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.290
275
134 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
275
117 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.104
275
120 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.115
275
64 of 138
pass: success rate
0.388
275
63 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.709
275
111 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.503
275
113 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.260
275
48 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
275
127 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.127
275
11 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
275
121 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
275
85 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
275
47 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
275
58 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
275
60 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
275
101 of 138
NAVY defence
NAVY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
179
107 of 138
success rate
0.391
179
67 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.407
179
125 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.020
179
48 of 138
rush: success rate
0.333
179
29 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.899
179
64 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.430
179
128 of 138
pass: success rate
0.481
179
124 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.775
179
119 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.417
179
45 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.344
179
118 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.711
179
57 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
179
84 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
179
132 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.429
179
73 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
179
43 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
179
103 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.028
179
1 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
179
17 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs