Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TULN wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
TULN
Games
4
Plays per game
61.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-7.3 (97th, offence 109th, defence 80th)
Returning production
21% (pass 0%, rush 60%, receiving 28%)
RICE
Games
4
Plays per game
63.8
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-15.1 (119th, offence 119th, defence 116th)
Returning production
39% (pass -317%, rush 77%, receiving 54%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TULN
RICE
pass rate, all downs
49%61st
25%134th
pass rate, standard downs
41%73rd
18%134th
pass rate, 1st down
44%61st
17%135th
no-huddle share
69%62nd
58%76th
pass rate, passing downs
61%82nd
43%135th
pass rate, red zone
32%101st
5%138th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4113th
30.532nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TULN offence
TULN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.103
245
92 of 138
success rate
0.343
245
131 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.513
245
3 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.161
245
51 of 138
rush: success rate
0.379
245
118 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.346
245
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.020
245
120 of 138
pass: success rate
0.304
245
134 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.703
245
34 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.408
245
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.237
245
122 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.573
245
129 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.218
245
120 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
245
72 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.474
245
132 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.200
245
133 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.135
245
133 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.065
245
98 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.100
245
6 of 138
RICE offence
RICE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.069
255
102 of 138
success rate
0.447
255
61 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
255
121 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.127
255
70 of 138
rush: success rate
0.489
255
33 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.986
255
62 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.059
255
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.333
255
130 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.648
255
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.527
255
41 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.239
255
120 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.353
255
33 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
255
28 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
255
39 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.833
255
74 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
255
64 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.110
255
111 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
255
9 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
76.400
255
2 of 138
TULN defence
TULN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.171
283
115 of 138
success rate
0.396
283
72 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.306
283
97 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
283
101 of 138
rush: success rate
0.370
283
48 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
283
112 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.300
283
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
283
107 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.546
283
69 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.441
283
62 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.317
283
104 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.086
283
106 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.162
283
33 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
283
97 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.308
283
65 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.110
283
6 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
283
11 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
283
24 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
283
86 of 138
RICE defence
RICE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.137
261
98 of 138
success rate
0.429
261
97 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.289
261
92 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.152
261
117 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
261
88 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.141
261
126 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.150
261
74 of 138
pass: success rate
0.442
261
105 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
261
59 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.489
261
101 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.310
261
97 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.766
261
61 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.184
261
52 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
261
40 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.280
261
122 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
261
44 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
261
86 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.038
261
14 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
261
14 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs