Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UTSA wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
UNT
Games
4
Plays per game
72.8
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-5.7 (91st, offence 47th, defence 120th)
Returning production
3% (pass 2%, rush 3%, receiving 2%)
UTSA
Games
4
Plays per game
63.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-1.0 (73rd, offence 44th, defence 99th)
Returning production
67% (pass 93%, rush 36%, receiving 61%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UNT
UTSA
pass rate, all downs
51%43rd
51%48th
pass rate, passing downs
60%87th
67%53rd
no-huddle share
62%68th
84%37th
pass rate, standard downs
48%23rd
44%51st
pass rate, 1st down
45%52nd
48%33rd
pass rate, red zone
46%29th
35%87th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.656th
27.397th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UNT offence
UNT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.319
291
17 of 138
success rate
0.505
291
20 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.280
291
48 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.188
291
41 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
291
73 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.058
291
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.467
291
21 of 138
pass: success rate
0.572
291
8 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.461
291
94 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
291
20 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.376
291
28 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.271
291
46 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.165
291
64 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
291
69 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.419
291
38 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
291
28 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
291
29 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
291
52 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.100
291
77 of 138
UTSA offence
UTSA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.268
253
35 of 138
success rate
0.474
253
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.111
253
124 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.248
253
25 of 138
rush: success rate
0.541
253
9 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.834
253
106 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.294
253
57 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
253
87 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.459
253
97 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.565
253
14 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
253
109 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.075
253
75 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
253
79 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
253
16 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.542
253
91 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
253
66 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.071
253
35 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
253
105 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
253
104 of 138
UNT defence
UNT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
254
92 of 138
success rate
0.445
254
113 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.226
254
69 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.043
254
40 of 138
rush: success rate
0.412
254
77 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.724
254
19 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.453
254
130 of 138
pass: success rate
0.505
254
131 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.846
254
129 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.481
254
93 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.352
254
122 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.483
254
29 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.196
254
74 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.704
254
61 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.875
254
107 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
254
51 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
254
82 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.043
254
25 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.700
254
3 of 138
UTSA defence
UTSA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.077
324
77 of 138
success rate
0.432
324
101 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.135
324
36 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.187
324
124 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
324
114 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.917
324
70 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.084
324
57 of 138
pass: success rate
0.423
324
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.380
324
26 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
324
88 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.340
324
114 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.280
324
123 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.124
324
10 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
324
43 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.714
324
93 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
324
21 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
324
12 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.061
324
67 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
324
74 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs