Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ECU wins about 48% of the time at a number like ours.
ECU
Games
4
Plays per game
60.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-2.8 (79th, offence 92nd, defence 69th)
Returning production
14% (pass 0%, rush 27%, receiving 20%)
CLT
Games
4
Plays per game
60.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-27.3 (137th, offence 137th, defence 137th)
Returning production
41% (pass 113%, rush 27%, receiving 16%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ECU
CLT
pass rate, all downs
52%42nd
57%14th
pass rate, standard downs
44%50th
50%12th
pass rate, 1st down
40%91st
52%18th
no-huddle share
79%47th
35%96th
pass rate, passing downs
69%42nd
72%29th
pass rate, red zone
47%28th
49%23rd
seconds per play (own drives)
24.1134th
29.853rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ECU offence
ECU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.056
242
106 of 138
success rate
0.401
242
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.166
242
100 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.067
242
124 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
242
121 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.836
242
105 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.210
242
76 of 138
pass: success rate
0.424
242
82 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
242
85 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
242
71 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
242
134 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.431
242
136 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
242
98 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
242
81 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.238
242
110 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
124 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.116
242
120 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
242
100 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.400
242
25 of 138
CLT offence
CLT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.095
243
134 of 138
success rate
0.362
243
126 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.060
243
132 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.155
243
135 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
243
123 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.760
243
125 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
243
118 of 138
pass: success rate
0.376
243
112 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.288
243
128 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.444
243
112 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.205
243
133 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.384
243
137 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.279
243
137 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
243
123 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.312
243
133 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
243
114 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.103
243
103 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
243
110 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.900
243
17 of 138
ECU defence
ECU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.018
288
42 of 138
success rate
0.354
288
35 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.313
288
101 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.024
288
67 of 138
rush: success rate
0.370
288
47 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.183
288
131 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.002
288
31 of 138
pass: success rate
0.345
288
25 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.540
288
65 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.371
288
14 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
288
109 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.252
288
11 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.291
288
134 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
288
20 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.846
288
37 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.194
288
113 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.160
288
131 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.035
288
9 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
288
48 of 138
CLT defence
CLT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.165
284
113 of 138
success rate
0.472
284
129 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.181
284
50 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.097
284
94 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
284
94 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.102
284
119 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.343
284
120 of 138
pass: success rate
0.520
284
137 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.294
284
12 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
284
95 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.449
284
138 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.793
284
63 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.247
284
120 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
284
107 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
284
113 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
284
36 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
284
80 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.032
284
5 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.300
284
7 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs