Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MEM wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
ARMY
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-0.8 (72nd, offence 75th, defence 77th)
Returning production
80% (pass 63%, rush 89%, receiving 83%)
MEM
Games
4
Plays per game
63.5
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
2.3 (63rd, offence 33rd, defence 97th)
Returning production
6% (pass 2%, rush 0%, receiving 11%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARMY
MEM
pass rate, all downs
16%138th
43%107th
pass rate, standard downs
13%137th
37%106th
pass rate, 1st down
17%136th
41%85th
no-huddle share
10%122nd
83%41st
pass rate, red zone
10%137th
44%37th
pass rate, passing downs
25%138th
59%93rd
seconds per play (own drives)
34.01st
25.9124th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARMY offence
ARMY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.365
202
10 of 138
success rate
0.550
202
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.029
202
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.395
202
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.576
202
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.988
202
61 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.320
202
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
202
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.201
202
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.610
202
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
202
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.827
202
7 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.097
202
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
202
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.409
202
39 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.045
202
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
202
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.000
202
1 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
202
89 of 138
MEM offence
MEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.262
254
36 of 138
success rate
0.472
254
46 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.370
254
21 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.182
254
45 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
254
64 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.008
254
53 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.545
254
12 of 138
pass: success rate
0.514
254
24 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.828
254
16 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.516
254
46 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.353
254
46 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.464
254
24 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.148
254
45 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
254
67 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.609
254
32 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
254
42 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
254
25 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.059
254
82 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
76.900
254
1 of 138
ARMY defence
ARMY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.189
162
118 of 138
success rate
0.438
162
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.245
162
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
162
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.471
162
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
162
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.217
162
91 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
162
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
162
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
162
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
162
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.274
162
121 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
162
58 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
162
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.833
162
36 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
162
24 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
162
13 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
162
68 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.900
162
137 of 138
MEM defence
MEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.180
275
117 of 138
success rate
0.418
275
89 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.400
275
124 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.290
275
134 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
275
117 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.104
275
120 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.115
275
64 of 138
pass: success rate
0.388
275
63 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.709
275
111 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.503
275
113 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.260
275
48 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
275
127 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.127
275
11 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
275
121 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
275
85 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
275
47 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
275
58 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
275
60 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
275
101 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs