Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MEM wins about 84% of the time at a number like ours.
ECU
Games
4
Plays per game
60.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-2.8 (79th, offence 92nd, defence 69th)
Returning production
14% (pass 0%, rush 27%, receiving 20%)
MEM
Games
4
Plays per game
63.5
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
2.3 (63rd, offence 33rd, defence 97th)
Returning production
6% (pass 2%, rush 0%, receiving 11%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ECU
MEM
pass rate, all downs
52%42nd
43%107th
pass rate, standard downs
44%50th
37%106th
pass rate, 1st down
40%91st
41%85th
no-huddle share
79%47th
83%41st
pass rate, passing downs
69%42nd
59%93rd
pass rate, red zone
47%28th
44%37th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.1134th
25.9124th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ECU offence
ECU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.056
242
106 of 138
success rate
0.401
242
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.166
242
100 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.067
242
124 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
242
121 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.836
242
105 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.210
242
76 of 138
pass: success rate
0.424
242
82 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
242
85 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
242
71 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
242
134 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.431
242
136 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
242
98 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
242
81 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.238
242
110 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
124 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.116
242
120 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
242
100 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.400
242
25 of 138
MEM offence
MEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.262
254
36 of 138
success rate
0.472
254
46 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.370
254
21 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.182
254
45 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
254
64 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.008
254
53 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.545
254
12 of 138
pass: success rate
0.514
254
24 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.828
254
16 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.516
254
46 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.353
254
46 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.464
254
24 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.148
254
45 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
254
67 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.609
254
32 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
254
42 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
254
25 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.059
254
82 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
76.900
254
1 of 138
ECU defence
ECU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.018
288
42 of 138
success rate
0.354
288
35 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.313
288
101 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.024
288
67 of 138
rush: success rate
0.370
288
47 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.183
288
131 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.002
288
31 of 138
pass: success rate
0.345
288
25 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.540
288
65 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.371
288
14 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
288
109 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.252
288
11 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.291
288
134 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
288
20 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.846
288
37 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.194
288
113 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.160
288
131 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.035
288
9 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
288
48 of 138
MEM defence
MEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.180
275
117 of 138
success rate
0.418
275
89 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.400
275
124 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.290
275
134 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
275
117 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.104
275
120 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.115
275
64 of 138
pass: success rate
0.388
275
63 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.709
275
111 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.503
275
113 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.260
275
48 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
275
127 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.127
275
11 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
275
121 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
275
85 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
275
47 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
275
58 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
275
60 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
275
101 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs