Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). AF wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
NAVY
Games
3
Plays per game
69.0
Drives per game
10.7
SP+
-3.7 (85th, offence 78th, defence 95th)
Returning production
14% (pass -3%, rush 19%, receiving 15%)
AF
Games
3
Plays per game
77.7
Drives per game
10.7
SP+
-3.4 (83rd, offence 74th, defence 94th)
Returning production
57% (pass 102%, rush 70%, receiving 13%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NAVY
AF
pass rate, all downs
23%136th
16%137th
pass rate, standard downs
15%135th
12%138th
pass rate, 1st down
20%134th
10%138th
no-huddle share
28%103rd
7%129th
pass rate, passing downs
42%136th
30%137th
pass rate, red zone
11%135th
16%134th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.728th
30.243rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NAVY offence
NAVY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.211
207
57 of 138
success rate
0.512
207
17 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.141
207
114 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.339
207
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
207
3 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
207
38 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.235
207
138 of 138
pass: success rate
0.283
207
137 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.798
207
18 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.615
207
3 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.254
207
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.825
207
8 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
207
7 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.957
207
3 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.750
207
22 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.164
207
100 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.116
207
121 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
207
58 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
207
36 of 138
AF offence
AF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.297
233
22 of 138
success rate
0.489
233
32 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.083
233
129 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.336
233
8 of 138
rush: success rate
0.511
233
20 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.966
233
70 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.290
233
59 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
233
86 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.877
233
9 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.554
233
24 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
233
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.836
233
6 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.068
233
1 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.808
233
33 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.316
233
47 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.064
233
3 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.021
233
2 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
233
43 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
233
26 of 138
NAVY defence
NAVY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
179
107 of 138
success rate
0.391
179
67 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.407
179
125 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.020
179
48 of 138
rush: success rate
0.333
179
29 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.899
179
64 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.430
179
128 of 138
pass: success rate
0.481
179
124 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.775
179
119 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.417
179
45 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.344
179
118 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.711
179
57 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
179
84 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
179
132 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.429
179
73 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
179
43 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
179
103 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.028
179
1 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
179
17 of 138
AF defence
AF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.004
173
53 of 138
success rate
0.347
173
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.430
173
130 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.125
173
107 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
173
65 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.118
173
122 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.064
173
15 of 138
pass: success rate
0.312
173
14 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.867
173
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.411
173
37 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.230
173
29 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.866
173
71 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
173
95 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
173
44 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
173
111 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
173
49 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
173
28 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
173
101 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
173
44 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs