Line has moved -2.0 since we first saw it (AF -1.5 to AF -3.5).
Betting
Spread
NAVY favouredMarket AF −3.5Ours AF −10.9
AF favouredgap 7.4 toward AF
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| NAVY away | +3.5 | 21.5 | +140 | 40.0% | 42% |
| AF home | -3.5 | 25.0 | -166 | 60.0% | 59% |
| Total | 46.5 | |
AF -1.5 when first seen, now AF -3.5 · total 49.5 then, 46.5 now. Over -108 / under -112 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 05:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| NAVY away | +11.0 | 17.8 | 23.4% | +7.5 |
| AF home | -11.0 | 28.7 | 76.6% | -7.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| NAVY away | +0.5 | 30.1 | 49.0% | -3.0 |
| AF home | -0.5 | 30.4 | 51.0% | +3.0 |
| Total | 60.5 | | | +14.0 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | NAVY | AF |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -3.699th | +1.053rd |
| Defence (cards) | -0.784th | -0.885th |
| Card team rating | -4.394th | +0.261st |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -3.785th | -3.483rd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.383rd | -0.390th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.382nd | -0.487th |
| Card line | AF -10.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 14% | 57% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Jackson Gutierrez NAVY73 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.261
Completion40.0%
TD–INT2-0
Pass attempts, median game12
Pass yards, median game100
Rush yards, median game75
Games this season3
Team throws per game14.0
Liam Szarka AF82 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.366
Completion48.1%
TD–INT1-2
Pass attempts, median game10
Pass yards, median game92
Rush yards, median game88
Games this season3
Team throws per game11.3
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| NAVY away | 0-3 | 0% | -9.2 | 2-1 | +2.8 |
| AF home | 1-2 | 33% | -1.2 | 2-1 | +6.2 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| NAVY | non-division | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| AF | home | failed to cover 6 straight — next game covered 56.2% of the time (1276 cases) |
| AF | home favourite | failed to cover 6 straight — next game covered 56.2% of the time (1276 cases) |
Streak picker (spread): bets AF — AF has failed to cover 6 straight as home.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Falcon Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| NAVY | B. Woodson QB | questionable Ankle | Sat, Sep 26 | Woodson is nursing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Air Force on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| NAVY | L. Walker RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Walker is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Air Force on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| NAVY | J. Chalmers RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Chalmers is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Air Force on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| NAVY | M. Barlow TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Barlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Air Force on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| AF | J. Dawson WR | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Dawson has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Nevada on Saturday, September 26th. |