| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM away | -20.5 | 36.5 | -1450 | 89.9% | 92% |
| CLT home | +20.5 | 16.0 | +850 | 10.1% | 9% |
| Total | 52.5 | ||||
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM away | -14.0 | 33.2 | 82.1% | +6.5 |
| CLT home | +14.0 | 19.3 | 17.9% | -6.5 |
| Total | no total model |
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM away | -18.0 | 34.5 | 89.1% | +2.5 |
| CLT home | +18.0 | 16.7 | 10.9% | -2.5 |
| Total | 51.2 | -1.3 |
| Points vs an average FBS team | MEM | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Offence (cards) | -0.567th | -6.3131st |
| Defence (cards) | +0.749th | -2.3130th |
| Card team rating | +0.162nd | -8.6131st |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +2.363rd | -27.3137th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.064th | -1.0132nd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.161st | -1.8135th |
| Card line | CLT +13.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) | |
| Returning production | 6% | 41% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM away | 2-2 | 50% | 0.0 | 3-1 | +4.3 |
| CLT home | 2-2 | 50% | -4.0 | 1-3 | +2.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|---|---|
| CLT | all | lost 14 straight — next game covered 49.5% of the time (2595 cases) |
| CLT | all | gone under 6 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases) |
| CLT | underdog | lost 14 straight — next game covered 49.5% of the time (2595 cases) |
| CLT | underdog | gone under 6 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases) |
| CLT | day | lost 13 straight — next game covered 49.5% of the time (2595 cases) |
| CLT | day | gone under 5 straight — next game went over 50.8% of the time (3311 cases) |
| CLT | division | lost 8 straight — next game covered 51.1% of the time (4270 cases) |
| CLT | home | failed to cover 7 straight — next game covered 56.2% of the time (1276 cases) |
| CLT | home | lost 7 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| CLT | home underdog | failed to cover 7 straight — next game covered 56.2% of the time (1276 cases) |
| CLT | home underdog | lost 7 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| CLT | home division | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| CLT | home division | lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases) |
Streak picker (spread): bets CLT — CLT has failed to cover 7 straight as home.
Streak picker (total): bets the over — CLT has gone under 6 straight as all.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Covers.com lists nobody for either side.