Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). USF wins about 69% of the time at a number like ours.
USF
Games
4
Plays per game
58.2
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
3.9 (55th, offence 49th, defence 61st)
Returning production
13% (pass 6%, rush -1%, receiving 24%)
BGSU
Games
4
Plays per game
58.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-26.4 (136th, offence 138th, defence 126th)
Returning production
-6% (pass 940%, rush 0%, receiving 3%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USF
BGSU
pass rate, all downs
43%103rd
45%95th
pass rate, standard downs
37%102nd
38%99th
pass rate, 1st down
39%98th
38%105th
no-huddle share
9%124th
29%102nd
pass rate, passing downs
57%101st
59%94th
pass rate, red zone
18%132nd
25%122nd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.339th
32.68th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USF offence
USF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.234
233
49 of 138
success rate
0.515
233
14 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.149
233
108 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.258
233
21 of 138
rush: success rate
0.523
233
13 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.088
233
24 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.256
233
69 of 138
pass: success rate
0.510
233
25 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.271
233
133 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.577
233
8 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.371
233
32 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.087
233
72 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.200
233
102 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
233
23 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.136
233
10 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
233
58 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.099
233
95 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
233
18 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
233
115 of 138
BGSU offence
BGSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.115
232
136 of 138
success rate
0.336
232
135 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.958
232
138 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.261
232
138 of 138
rush: success rate
0.302
232
138 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.577
232
136 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.059
232
111 of 138
pass: success rate
0.364
232
119 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
232
101 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.431
232
124 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.152
232
137 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.431
232
135 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.246
232
133 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
232
80 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.188
232
138 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.194
232
129 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.138
232
135 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.056
232
76 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.300
232
53 of 138
USF defence
USF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.020
262
40 of 138
success rate
0.408
262
82 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.955
262
3 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.198
262
11 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
262
64 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.498
262
6 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
262
84 of 138
pass: success rate
0.433
262
101 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.445
262
46 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
262
104 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.233
262
32 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.434
262
26 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.272
262
132 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
262
26 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.125
262
55 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
262
102 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
262
125 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
262
23 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.500
262
99 of 138
BGSU defence
BGSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.227
242
127 of 138
success rate
0.492
242
135 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
242
93 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.251
242
132 of 138
rush: success rate
0.520
242
137 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.216
242
133 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.277
242
106 of 138
pass: success rate
0.477
242
122 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.438
242
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.556
242
136 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
242
94 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.436
242
133 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.169
242
36 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
242
81 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.231
242
121 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.120
242
13 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
242
56 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.029
242
2 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.100
242
35 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs