Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). FAU wins about 87% of the time at a number like ours.
FAU
Games
4
Plays per game
82.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-4.2 (87th, offence 64th, defence 106th)
Returning production
68% (pass 93%, rush 107%, receiving 48%)
ULM
Games
4
Plays per game
67.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-29.0 (138th, offence 131st, defence 138th)
Returning production
39% (pass 78%, rush 16%, receiving 26%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
FAU
ULM
pass rate, all downs
54%28th
50%56th
pass rate, standard downs
48%25th
40%85th
pass rate, 1st down
53%13th
38%102nd
no-huddle share
98%7th
95%14th
pass rate, passing downs
68%46th
75%16th
pass rate, red zone
53%12th
44%43rd
seconds per play (own drives)
22.5137th
27.985th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
FAU offence
FAU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.142
330
74 of 138
success rate
0.436
330
74 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.151
330
107 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
330
91 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
330
113 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.976
330
66 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.230
330
73 of 138
pass: success rate
0.482
330
42 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.287
330
129 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.466
330
94 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
330
36 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.746
330
117 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.167
330
66 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.793
330
42 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.962
330
68 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
330
74 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
330
61 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
330
86 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
330
90 of 138
ULM offence
ULM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.052
271
130 of 138
success rate
0.402
271
103 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.119
271
119 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.070
271
88 of 138
rush: success rate
0.432
271
86 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.879
271
90 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.082
271
134 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
271
106 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
271
111 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
271
105 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
271
102 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.968
271
91 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
271
52 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
271
125 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.478
271
131 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.170
271
110 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.100
271
97 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
271
112 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.900
271
33 of 138
FAU defence
FAU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.209
259
122 of 138
success rate
0.405
259
78 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.543
259
136 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.171
259
120 of 138
rush: success rate
0.389
259
58 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.172
259
130 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.288
259
109 of 138
pass: success rate
0.427
259
97 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.875
259
132 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.463
259
81 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
259
76 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.805
259
64 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.191
259
62 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.857
259
124 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.227
259
120 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.158
259
62 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.089
259
52 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
259
93 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.100
259
92 of 138
ULM defence
ULM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.308
295
135 of 138
success rate
0.508
295
137 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
295
66 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.314
295
136 of 138
rush: success rate
0.522
295
138 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.077
295
115 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.339
295
118 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
295
130 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.413
295
34 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
295
133 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.427
295
136 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.418
295
130 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.161
295
32 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
295
102 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.448
295
125 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.115
295
8 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.064
295
8 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.051
295
42 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.600
295
41 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs