Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARMY wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
ARMY
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-0.8 (72nd, offence 75th, defence 77th)
Returning production
80% (pass 63%, rush 89%, receiving 83%)
TEM
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
-6.1 (92nd, offence 67th, defence 112th)
Returning production
37% (pass 0%, rush 23%, receiving 69%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARMY
TEM
pass rate, all downs
16%138th
36%131st
pass rate, standard downs
13%137th
31%128th
pass rate, 1st down
17%136th
29%130th
no-huddle share
10%122nd
64%67th
pass rate, red zone
10%137th
33%94th
pass rate, passing downs
25%138th
52%124th
seconds per play (own drives)
34.01st
30.144th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARMY offence
ARMY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.365
202
10 of 138
success rate
0.550
202
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.029
202
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.395
202
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.576
202
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.988
202
61 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.320
202
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
202
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.201
202
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.610
202
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
202
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.827
202
7 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.097
202
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
202
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.409
202
39 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.045
202
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
202
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.000
202
1 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
202
89 of 138
TEM offence
TEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.237
246
46 of 138
success rate
0.435
246
78 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
246
41 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
246
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.461
246
60 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.060
246
32 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.205
246
79 of 138
pass: success rate
0.384
246
108 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.834
246
15 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.475
246
89 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.333
246
56 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.328
246
35 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.169
246
74 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
246
83 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.381
246
103 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
246
7 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.049
246
11 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.041
246
36 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
246
16 of 138
ARMY defence
ARMY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.189
162
118 of 138
success rate
0.438
162
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.245
162
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
162
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.471
162
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
162
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.217
162
91 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
162
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
162
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
162
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
162
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.274
162
121 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
162
58 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
162
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.833
162
36 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
162
24 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
162
13 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
162
68 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.900
162
137 of 138
TEM defence
TEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.209
267
123 of 138
success rate
0.457
267
121 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
267
59 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.155
267
118 of 138
rush: success rate
0.455
267
111 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.884
267
58 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.306
267
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.474
267
121 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.576
267
80 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
267
111 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.347
267
120 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.883
267
72 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.110
267
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
267
96 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.586
267
83 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.109
267
5 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.052
267
2 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
267
59 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.400
267
78 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs