Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TLSA wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
TLSA
Games
4
Plays per game
64.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-3.4 (83rd, offence 101st, defence 60th)
Returning production
41% (pass 69%, rush 11%, receiving 42%)
SHSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
13.5
SP+
-14.1 (117th, offence 113th, defence 112th)
Returning production
58% (pass -31%, rush -3%, receiving 57%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TLSA
SHSU
pass rate, all downs
48%72nd
59%7th
pass rate, standard downs
46%37th
52%7th
pass rate, 1st down
42%74th
56%5th
no-huddle share
67%64th
83%38th
pass rate, passing downs
51%126th
73%26th
pass rate, red zone
44%38th
54%11th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.8105th
29.852nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TLSA offence
TLSA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.117
257
88 of 138
success rate
0.405
257
101 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.142
257
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.227
257
32 of 138
rush: success rate
0.447
257
71 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.035
257
42 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.011
257
121 of 138
pass: success rate
0.361
257
122 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.344
257
122 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
257
39 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.151
257
138 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
257
42 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
257
17 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.929
257
5 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
257
120 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
257
69 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
257
33 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
257
111 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.500
257
69 of 138
SHSU offence
SHSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
280
93 of 138
success rate
0.439
280
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.283
280
46 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
280
100 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
280
45 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.824
280
108 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.204
280
80 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
280
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.642
280
49 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
280
87 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.353
280
47 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.799
280
112 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.211
280
115 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
280
120 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.458
280
95 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.175
280
116 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
280
116 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
280
96 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.100
280
31 of 138
TLSA defence
TLSA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.070
306
25 of 138
success rate
0.386
306
63 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.035
306
11 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.118
306
24 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
306
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.609
306
9 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.066
306
47 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
306
44 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.443
306
45 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.428
306
52 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
306
93 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.838
306
68 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.192
306
66 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
306
31 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
306
13 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.147
306
45 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
306
42 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
306
85 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.900
306
106 of 138
SHSU defence
SHSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.065
263
74 of 138
success rate
0.388
263
66 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.259
263
86 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.204
263
128 of 138
rush: success rate
0.434
263
99 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.157
263
127 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.058
263
17 of 138
pass: success rate
0.330
263
17 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.396
263
30 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.445
263
65 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
263
66 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.075
263
104 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.203
263
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
263
79 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.875
263
40 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.224
263
132 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.125
263
114 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
263
132 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.300
263
53 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs