Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MEM wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
ARST
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-9.5 (107th, offence 93rd, defence 110th)
Returning production
30% (pass 7%, rush -246%, receiving 54%)
MEM
Games
4
Plays per game
63.5
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
2.3 (63rd, offence 33rd, defence 97th)
Returning production
6% (pass 2%, rush 0%, receiving 11%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARST
MEM
pass rate, all downs
47%78th
43%107th
pass rate, standard downs
40%86th
37%106th
pass rate, 1st down
43%69th
41%85th
no-huddle share
33%99th
83%41st
pass rate, passing downs
67%52nd
59%93rd
pass rate, red zone
32%102nd
44%37th
seconds per play (own drives)
33.54th
25.9124th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARST offence
ARST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.152
235
72 of 138
success rate
0.485
235
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.147
235
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
235
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.504
235
22 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.962
235
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
235
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
235
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.402
235
113 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.555
235
23 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
235
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.371
235
30 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.146
235
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
235
74 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
235
96 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
235
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
235
36 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.068
235
106 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
235
85 of 138
MEM offence
MEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.262
254
36 of 138
success rate
0.472
254
46 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.370
254
21 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.182
254
45 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
254
64 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.008
254
53 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.545
254
12 of 138
pass: success rate
0.514
254
24 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.828
254
16 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.516
254
46 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.353
254
46 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.464
254
24 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.148
254
45 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
254
67 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.609
254
32 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
254
42 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
254
25 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.059
254
82 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
76.900
254
1 of 138
ARST defence
ARST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.161
256
111 of 138
success rate
0.453
256
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.244
256
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
256
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
256
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.890
256
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.462
256
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.455
256
110 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.804
256
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
256
112 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
256
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
256
126 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.136
256
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
256
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.476
256
76 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
256
51 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
256
103 of 138
MEM defence
MEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.180
275
117 of 138
success rate
0.418
275
89 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.400
275
124 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.290
275
134 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
275
117 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.104
275
120 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.115
275
64 of 138
pass: success rate
0.388
275
63 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.709
275
111 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.503
275
113 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.260
275
48 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
275
127 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.127
275
11 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
275
121 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
275
85 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
275
47 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
275
58 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
275
60 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
275
101 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs