Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TEM wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
CONN
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-3.7 (85th, offence 79th, defence 93rd)
Returning production
2% (pass 3%, rush 0%, receiving 2%)
TEM
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
-6.1 (92nd, offence 67th, defence 112th)
Returning production
37% (pass 0%, rush 23%, receiving 69%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CONN
TEM
pass rate, all downs
46%85th
36%131st
pass rate, standard downs
38%101st
31%128th
pass rate, 1st down
39%99th
29%130th
no-huddle share
87%27th
64%67th
pass rate, passing downs
64%62nd
52%124th
pass rate, red zone
22%128th
33%94th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.889th
30.144th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CONN offence
CONN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.231
260
50 of 138
success rate
0.435
260
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.421
260
13 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.207
260
38 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
260
63 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.021
260
48 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.368
260
41 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
260
80 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.963
260
6 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.480
260
83 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
260
52 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.239
260
51 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
260
71 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
260
107 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.625
260
30 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
260
45 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
260
73 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
260
28 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
260
65 of 138
TEM offence
TEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.237
246
46 of 138
success rate
0.435
246
78 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
246
41 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
246
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.461
246
60 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.060
246
32 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.205
246
79 of 138
pass: success rate
0.384
246
108 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.834
246
15 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.475
246
89 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.333
246
56 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.328
246
35 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.169
246
74 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
246
83 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.381
246
103 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
246
7 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.049
246
11 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.041
246
36 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
246
16 of 138
CONN defence
CONN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.019
290
61 of 138
success rate
0.386
290
64 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.255
290
85 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.014
290
54 of 138
rush: success rate
0.381
290
54 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.874
290
53 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.066
290
48 of 138
pass: success rate
0.393
290
71 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.502
290
60 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
290
61 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.283
290
74 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.648
290
52 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.212
290
91 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
290
29 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.720
290
30 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
290
79 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
290
45 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.086
290
124 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
290
69 of 138
TEM defence
TEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.209
267
123 of 138
success rate
0.457
267
121 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
267
59 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.155
267
118 of 138
rush: success rate
0.455
267
111 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.884
267
58 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.306
267
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.474
267
121 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.576
267
80 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
267
111 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.347
267
120 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.883
267
72 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.110
267
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
267
96 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.586
267
83 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.109
267
5 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.052
267
2 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
267
59 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.400
267
78 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs