Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). FRES wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
CSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-7.3 (97th, offence 70th, defence 116th)
Returning production
40% (pass 23%, rush -28%, receiving 58%)
FRES
Games
4
Plays per game
62.2
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-0.3 (70th, offence 90th, defence 50th)
Returning production
38% (pass 7%, rush 17%, receiving 70%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CSU
FRES
pass rate, all downs
58%11th
47%81st
pass rate, standard downs
51%10th
37%109th
pass rate, 1st down
49%25th
34%117th
no-huddle share
80%46th
4%132nd
pass rate, passing downs
73%25th
69%39th
pass rate, red zone
42%52nd
37%73rd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.2119th
31.813th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CSU offence
CSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.270
283
33 of 138
success rate
0.438
283
72 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.512
283
4 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.287
283
15 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
283
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.344
283
2 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.309
283
54 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
283
61 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.663
283
42 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.472
283
93 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.357
283
42 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.616
283
125 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.202
283
105 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
283
36 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.875
283
19 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
283
87 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
283
53 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
283
115 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.600
283
101 of 138
FRES offence
FRES offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.115
249
89 of 138
success rate
0.369
249
123 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.428
249
11 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
249
105 of 138
rush: success rate
0.336
249
134 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.226
249
7 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.361
249
45 of 138
pass: success rate
0.445
249
66 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
249
55 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.399
249
130 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.303
249
79 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.559
249
131 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.266
249
136 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
249
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.640
249
85 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
249
55 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
249
109 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.024
249
7 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.900
249
120 of 138
CSU defence
CSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.163
253
112 of 138
success rate
0.462
253
124 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.198
253
56 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.229
253
130 of 138
rush: success rate
0.487
253
130 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.927
253
76 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.273
253
103 of 138
pass: success rate
0.467
253
117 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.664
253
103 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.522
253
127 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.310
253
96 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.395
253
129 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.158
253
29 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
253
131 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
253
114 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
253
95 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
253
85 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
253
102 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
253
57 of 138
FRES defence
FRES defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.010
270
55 of 138
success rate
0.444
270
110 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.127
270
33 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.020
270
47 of 138
rush: success rate
0.438
270
102 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.821
270
31 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.114
270
63 of 138
pass: success rate
0.467
270
118 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.494
270
58 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
270
119 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.276
270
63 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.932
270
87 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.208
270
86 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
270
42 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.900
270
42 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.156
270
59 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
270
70 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
56 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
270
134 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs