Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TXST wins about 84% of the time at a number like ours.
FRES
Games
4
Plays per game
62.2
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-0.3 (70th, offence 90th, defence 50th)
Returning production
38% (pass 7%, rush 17%, receiving 70%)
TXST
Games
4
Plays per game
72.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-1.8 (76th, offence 26th, defence 122nd)
Returning production
76% (pass 100%, rush 48%, receiving 79%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
FRES
TXST
pass rate, all downs
47%81st
37%130th
pass rate, passing downs
69%39th
64%67th
no-huddle share
4%132nd
98%6th
pass rate, standard downs
37%109th
29%132nd
pass rate, 1st down
34%117th
33%120th
pass rate, red zone
37%73rd
28%118th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.813th
27.692nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
FRES offence
FRES offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.115
249
89 of 138
success rate
0.369
249
123 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.428
249
11 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
249
105 of 138
rush: success rate
0.336
249
134 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.226
249
7 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.361
249
45 of 138
pass: success rate
0.445
249
66 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
249
55 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.399
249
130 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.303
249
79 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.559
249
131 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.266
249
136 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
249
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.640
249
85 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
249
55 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
249
109 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.024
249
7 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.900
249
120 of 138
TXST offence
TXST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.305
291
20 of 138
success rate
0.495
291
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.324
291
29 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.153
291
57 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
291
53 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
291
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.660
291
4 of 138
pass: success rate
0.559
291
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.852
291
14 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
291
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.530
291
2 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
291
48 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.139
291
37 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
291
105 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.214
291
112 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
291
29 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.079
291
50 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
291
19 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
291
50 of 138
FRES defence
FRES defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.010
270
55 of 138
success rate
0.444
270
110 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.127
270
33 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.020
270
47 of 138
rush: success rate
0.438
270
102 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.821
270
31 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.114
270
63 of 138
pass: success rate
0.467
270
118 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.494
270
58 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
270
119 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.276
270
63 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.932
270
87 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.208
270
86 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
270
42 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.900
270
42 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.156
270
59 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
270
70 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
56 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
270
134 of 138
TXST defence
TXST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.148
321
99 of 138
success rate
0.461
321
123 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
321
68 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.018
321
51 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
321
68 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.848
321
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
321
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.511
321
133 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.433
321
37 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.519
321
124 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.343
321
117 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.502
321
30 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
321
123 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
321
23 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
321
123 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
321
66 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
321
39 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
321
111 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
321
46 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs