Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BOIS wins about 86% of the time at a number like ours.
BOIS
Games
4
Plays per game
72.5
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
7.6 (47th, offence 29th, defence 56th)
Returning production
66% (pass 94%, rush 100%, receiving 40%)
FRES
Games
4
Plays per game
62.2
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-0.3 (70th, offence 90th, defence 50th)
Returning production
38% (pass 7%, rush 17%, receiving 70%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BOIS
FRES
pass rate, all downs
41%120th
47%81st
pass rate, standard downs
31%125th
37%109th
pass rate, 1st down
31%124th
34%117th
no-huddle share
3%136th
4%132nd
pass rate, passing downs
66%56th
69%39th
pass rate, red zone
40%62nd
37%73rd
seconds per play (own drives)
33.25th
31.813th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BOIS offence
BOIS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.295
290
23 of 138
success rate
0.500
290
23 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.153
290
105 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.248
290
24 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
290
15 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.941
290
77 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.335
290
48 of 138
pass: success rate
0.461
290
55 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.490
290
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.538
290
34 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.400
290
16 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.504
290
20 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
290
46 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
290
59 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.286
290
50 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.090
290
9 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.059
290
21 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.031
290
15 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
290
7 of 138
FRES offence
FRES offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.115
249
89 of 138
success rate
0.369
249
123 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.428
249
11 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
249
105 of 138
rush: success rate
0.336
249
134 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.226
249
7 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.361
249
45 of 138
pass: success rate
0.445
249
66 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
249
55 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.399
249
130 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.303
249
79 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.559
249
131 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.266
249
136 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
249
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.640
249
85 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
249
55 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
249
109 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.024
249
7 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.900
249
120 of 138
BOIS defence
BOIS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.019
219
60 of 138
success rate
0.356
219
38 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.663
219
138 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
219
63 of 138
rush: success rate
0.330
219
27 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.083
219
116 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.114
219
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.381
219
57 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.024
219
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.415
219
41 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
219
50 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.469
219
27 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.284
219
133 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
219
106 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.667
219
26 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.192
219
112 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
219
95 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
219
109 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.500
219
28 of 138
FRES defence
FRES defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.010
270
55 of 138
success rate
0.444
270
110 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.127
270
33 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.020
270
47 of 138
rush: success rate
0.438
270
102 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.821
270
31 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.114
270
63 of 138
pass: success rate
0.467
270
118 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.494
270
58 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
270
119 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.276
270
63 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.932
270
87 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.208
270
86 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
270
42 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.900
270
42 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.156
270
59 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
270
70 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
56 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
270
134 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs