Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BOIS wins about 93% of the time at a number like ours.
USU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-9.3 (105th, offence 121st, defence 78th)
Returning production
65% (pass 87%, rush 74%, receiving 49%)
BOIS
Games
4
Plays per game
72.5
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
7.6 (47th, offence 29th, defence 56th)
Returning production
66% (pass 94%, rush 100%, receiving 40%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USU
BOIS
pass rate, all downs
54%24th
41%120th
pass rate, standard downs
51%9th
31%125th
pass rate, 1st down
54%9th
31%124th
no-huddle share
91%20th
3%136th
pass rate, passing downs
60%90th
66%56th
pass rate, red zone
37%75th
40%62nd
seconds per play (own drives)
24.7130th
33.25th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USU offence
USU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.071
263
132 of 138
success rate
0.361
263
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.315
263
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.103
263
132 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
263
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.853
263
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.032
263
130 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
263
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.738
263
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.363
263
137 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.358
263
41 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.074
263
77 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.208
263
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.300
263
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.810
263
135 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
263
125 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
263
78 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.091
263
136 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
263
97 of 138
BOIS offence
BOIS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.295
290
23 of 138
success rate
0.500
290
23 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.153
290
105 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.248
290
24 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
290
15 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.941
290
77 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.335
290
48 of 138
pass: success rate
0.461
290
55 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.490
290
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.538
290
34 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.400
290
16 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.504
290
20 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
290
46 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
290
59 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.286
290
50 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.090
290
9 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.059
290
21 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.031
290
15 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
290
7 of 138
USU defence
USU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.021
296
62 of 138
success rate
0.405
296
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.133
296
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.008
296
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.408
296
73 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.006
296
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.044
296
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.404
296
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.221
296
5 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
296
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.292
296
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.602
296
43 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
296
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
296
80 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.037
296
53 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
296
32 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
296
21 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
296
82 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.600
296
113 of 138
BOIS defence
BOIS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.019
219
60 of 138
success rate
0.356
219
38 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.663
219
138 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
219
63 of 138
rush: success rate
0.330
219
27 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.083
219
116 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.114
219
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.381
219
57 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.024
219
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.415
219
41 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
219
50 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.469
219
27 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.284
219
133 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
219
106 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.667
219
26 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.192
219
112 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
219
95 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
219
109 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.500
219
28 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs