Line has moved +2.0 since we first saw it (BOIS -20.5 to BOIS -18.5).
Betting
Spread
USU favouredMarket BOIS −18.5Ours BOIS −23.9
BOIS favouredgap 5.4 toward BOIS
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| USU away | +18.5 | 16.5 | +850 | 10.1% | 8% |
| BOIS home | -18.5 | 35.0 | -1450 | 89.9% | 92% |
| Total | 51.5 | |
BOIS -20.5 when first seen, now BOIS -18.5 · total 49.5 then, 51.5 now. Over -108 / under -112 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| USU away | +24.0 | 13.8 | 6.4% | +5.5 |
| BOIS home | -24.0 | 37.7 | 93.6% | -5.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| USU away | +16.0 | 17.9 | 13.4% | -2.5 |
| BOIS home | -16.0 | 34.0 | 86.6% | +2.5 |
| Total | 51.9 | | | +0.4 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | USU | BOIS |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -5.3120th | +4.928th |
| Defence (cards) | -0.163rd | +1.237th |
| Card team rating | -5.4104th | +6.130th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -9.3105th | +7.647th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.174th | +0.527th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.591st | +0.734th |
| Card line | BOIS -23.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 65% | 66% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Grady Brosterhous USUnot rated by EA · GR
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game32.0
Maddux Madsen BOIS87 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.433
Completion63.1%
TD–INT9-0
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game206
Rush yards, median game15
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| USU away | 2-2 | 50% | +0.1 | 0-4 | -19.5 |
| BOIS home | 3-1 | 75% | +7.0 | 3-1 | 0.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| USU | all | gone under 6 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases) |
| USU | away | gone under 5 straight — next game went over 50.8% of the time (3311 cases) |
| USU | underdog | gone under 6 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases) |
| USU | away underdog | gone under 5 straight — next game went over 50.8% of the time (3311 cases) |
| USU | division | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| BOIS | all | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| BOIS | favourite | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
Streak picker (total): bets the over — USU has gone under 6 straight as all.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Albertsons Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Harrison Taggart USU — questionable (Utah State program officials, 2026-09-19)
Linebacker in concussion protocol with neck injury after tackle vs. No. 17 Utah; no update on Oct. 3 availability.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| USU | D. Starling WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Starling is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State |
| USU | J. Robinson WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Robinson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | J. Jacobs RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Jacobs is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is expected to play Saturday against Boise State |
| USU | M. Hillstead QB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Hillstead is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State |
| USU | N. White RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | White is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | G. Brosterhous QB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Brosterhous is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | S. Vailahi RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Vailahi is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | C. Remenowsky TE | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Remenowsky is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | K. Kaio TE | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Kaio is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | A. Garcia WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Garcia is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | N. Boncore WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Boncore is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to suit up Saturday against the Boise State. |
| USU | J. Nelson TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Nelson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season. |
| USU | E. Wood WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Wood is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play Saturday against the Boise State |
| BOIS | C. Bates WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Bates is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Utah St. on Saturday. |
| BOIS | S. Gaines RB | questionable Upper Body | Sun, Sep 27 | Gaines is dealing with a upper body injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Utah St. on Saturday, October 3rd. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.