Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ORST wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
ORST
Games
4
Plays per game
68.2
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
1.2 (65th, offence 67th, defence 56th)
Returning production
58% (pass 90%, rush 144%, receiving 41%)
UTEP
Games
4
Plays per game
56.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-24.0 (134th, offence 128th, defence 135th)
Returning production
-1% (pass 18%, rush -31%, receiving 15%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ORST
UTEP
pass rate, all downs
65%2nd
43%108th
pass rate, standard downs
55%3rd
40%81st
pass rate, 1st down
57%3rd
44%57th
no-huddle share
46%86th
75%53rd
pass rate, passing downs
87%1st
48%130th
pass rate, red zone
50%19th
46%30th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.396th
31.221st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ORST offence
ORST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.255
273
37 of 138
success rate
0.425
273
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.455
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.037
273
101 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
273
115 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
273
115 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.369
273
39 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
273
63 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.754
273
25 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.486
273
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.304
273
78 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.198
273
59 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.108
273
9 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
273
52 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
273
33 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
273
52 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.051
273
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.081
273
126 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.800
273
11 of 138
UTEP offence
UTEP offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.179
226
138 of 138
success rate
0.367
226
124 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
226
127 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.197
226
136 of 138
rush: success rate
0.357
226
128 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.867
226
95 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.037
226
131 of 138
pass: success rate
0.402
226
97 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.371
226
118 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.442
226
115 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
226
135 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.516
226
133 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.240
226
131 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
226
135 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.700
226
136 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.217
226
137 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.173
226
137 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
226
48 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.800
226
100 of 138
ORST defence
ORST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.092
288
82 of 138
success rate
0.413
288
86 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.093
288
26 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.026
288
69 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
288
63 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.764
288
24 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.172
288
80 of 138
pass: success rate
0.439
288
104 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.396
288
29 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.469
288
86 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
288
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.042
288
101 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.135
288
15 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
288
92 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.308
288
64 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
288
77 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.097
288
66 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
288
94 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.000
288
25 of 138
UTEP defence
UTEP defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.252
254
130 of 138
success rate
0.472
254
131 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.209
254
63 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.136
254
112 of 138
rush: success rate
0.439
254
104 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.922
254
71 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.512
254
137 of 138
pass: success rate
0.528
254
138 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.571
254
78 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.508
254
116 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.369
254
129 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.969
254
91 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
254
105 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
254
52 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.500
254
128 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
254
17 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.094
254
59 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.031
254
4 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
254
11 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs