Line has moved +1.0 since we first saw it (ORST -10.5 to ORST -11.5).
Betting
Spread
ORST favouredMarket ORST −11.5Ours ORST −6.6
UTEP favouredgap 4.9 toward UTEP
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| ORST away | -11.5 | 34.0 | -455 | 78.7% | 79% |
| UTEP home | +11.5 | 22.5 | +350 | 21.3% | 20% |
| Total | 56.5 | |
ORST -10.5 when first seen, now ORST -11.5 · total 53.5 then, 56.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ORST away | -6.5 | 31.6 | 66.2% | +5.0 |
| UTEP home | +6.5 | 24.9 | 33.8% | -5.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ORST away | -13.0 | 31.8 | 81.2% | -1.5 |
| UTEP home | +13.0 | 18.6 | 18.8% | +1.5 |
| Total | 50.4 | | | -6.1 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | ORST | UTEP |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -0.668th | -4.3106th |
| Defence (cards) | -0.780th | -1.9115th |
| Card team rating | -1.368th | -6.2112th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +1.265th | -24.0134th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.277th | -1.1134th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.171st | -1.8133rd |
| Card line | UTEP +6.6 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 58% | -1% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Braden Atkinson ORST79 ▲10 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.460
Completion65.0%
TD–INT11-2
Pass attempts, median game41
Pass yards, median game355
Rush yards, median game-5
Games this season4
Team throws per game42.5
EJ Colson UTEP75 ▲1 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play-0.021
Completion66.2%
TD–INT7-2
Pass attempts, median game17
Pass yards, median game103
Rush yards, median game20
Games this season4
Team throws per game19.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| ORST away | 4-0 | 100% | +13.6 | 3-1 | +1.5 |
| UTEP home | 1-3 | 25% | -3.0 | 2-2 | +2.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Sun Bowl · turf · 3884 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 84°F, wind 5 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | ORST 6 days · UTEP 7 days |
| Travel | ORST 1264 miles, body clock 6:00pm at kickoff, +3664 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| UTEP | L. Sperling RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Sperling is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the New Mexico. |
| UTEP | T. Jones RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Jones is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the New Mexico |
| UTEP | C. Simon WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Simon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established. |
| UTEP | M. Ferguson WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ferguson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established. |