Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). FRES wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
RICE
Games
4
Plays per game
63.8
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-15.1 (119th, offence 119th, defence 116th)
Returning production
39% (pass -317%, rush 77%, receiving 54%)
FRES
Games
4
Plays per game
62.2
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-0.3 (70th, offence 90th, defence 50th)
Returning production
38% (pass 7%, rush 17%, receiving 70%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
RICE
FRES
pass rate, all downs
25%134th
47%81st
pass rate, standard downs
18%134th
37%109th
pass rate, 1st down
17%135th
34%117th
no-huddle share
58%76th
4%132nd
pass rate, red zone
5%138th
37%73rd
pass rate, passing downs
43%135th
69%39th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.532nd
31.813th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
RICE offence
RICE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.069
255
102 of 138
success rate
0.447
255
61 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
255
121 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.127
255
70 of 138
rush: success rate
0.489
255
33 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.986
255
62 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.059
255
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.333
255
130 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.648
255
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.527
255
41 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.239
255
120 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.353
255
33 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
255
28 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
255
39 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.833
255
74 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
255
64 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.110
255
111 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
255
9 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
76.400
255
2 of 138
FRES offence
FRES offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.115
249
89 of 138
success rate
0.369
249
123 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.428
249
11 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
249
105 of 138
rush: success rate
0.336
249
134 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.226
249
7 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.361
249
45 of 138
pass: success rate
0.445
249
66 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
249
55 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.399
249
130 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.303
249
79 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.559
249
131 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.266
249
136 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
249
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.640
249
85 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
249
55 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
249
109 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.024
249
7 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.900
249
120 of 138
RICE defence
RICE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.137
261
98 of 138
success rate
0.429
261
97 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.289
261
92 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.152
261
117 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
261
88 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.141
261
126 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.150
261
74 of 138
pass: success rate
0.442
261
105 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
261
59 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.489
261
101 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.310
261
97 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.766
261
61 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.184
261
52 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
261
40 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.280
261
122 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
261
44 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
261
86 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.038
261
14 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
261
14 of 138
FRES defence
FRES defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.010
270
55 of 138
success rate
0.444
270
110 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.127
270
33 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.020
270
47 of 138
rush: success rate
0.438
270
102 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.821
270
31 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.114
270
63 of 138
pass: success rate
0.467
270
118 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.494
270
58 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
270
119 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.276
270
63 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.932
270
87 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.208
270
86 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
270
42 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.900
270
42 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.156
270
59 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
270
70 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
56 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
270
134 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs