Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TXST wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
UNT
Games
4
Plays per game
72.8
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-5.7 (91st, offence 47th, defence 120th)
Returning production
3% (pass 2%, rush 3%, receiving 2%)
TXST
Games
4
Plays per game
72.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-1.8 (76th, offence 26th, defence 122nd)
Returning production
76% (pass 100%, rush 48%, receiving 79%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UNT
TXST
pass rate, all downs
51%43rd
37%130th
pass rate, passing downs
60%87th
64%67th
no-huddle share
62%68th
98%6th
pass rate, standard downs
48%23rd
29%132nd
pass rate, 1st down
45%52nd
33%120th
pass rate, red zone
46%29th
28%118th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.656th
27.692nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UNT offence
UNT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.319
291
17 of 138
success rate
0.505
291
20 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.280
291
48 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.188
291
41 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
291
73 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.058
291
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.467
291
21 of 138
pass: success rate
0.572
291
8 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.461
291
94 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
291
20 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.376
291
28 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.271
291
46 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.165
291
64 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
291
69 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.419
291
38 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
291
28 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
291
29 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
291
52 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.100
291
77 of 138
TXST offence
TXST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.305
291
20 of 138
success rate
0.495
291
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.324
291
29 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.153
291
57 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
291
53 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
291
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.660
291
4 of 138
pass: success rate
0.559
291
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.852
291
14 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
291
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.530
291
2 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
291
48 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.139
291
37 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
291
105 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.214
291
112 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
291
29 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.079
291
50 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
291
19 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
291
50 of 138
UNT defence
UNT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
254
92 of 138
success rate
0.445
254
113 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.226
254
69 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.043
254
40 of 138
rush: success rate
0.412
254
77 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.724
254
19 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.453
254
130 of 138
pass: success rate
0.505
254
131 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.846
254
129 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.481
254
93 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.352
254
122 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.483
254
29 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.196
254
74 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.704
254
61 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.875
254
107 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
254
51 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.106
254
82 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.043
254
25 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.700
254
3 of 138
TXST defence
TXST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.148
321
99 of 138
success rate
0.461
321
123 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
321
68 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.018
321
51 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
321
68 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.848
321
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
321
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.511
321
133 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.433
321
37 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.519
321
124 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.343
321
117 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.502
321
30 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
321
123 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
321
23 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
321
123 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
321
66 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
321
39 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
321
111 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
321
46 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs