Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SDSU wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
JMU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 48th, defence 27th)
Returning production
8% (pass 9%, rush 7%, receiving 9%)
SDSU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.0
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-7.8 (100th, offence 110th, defence 86th)
Returning production
99% (pass 100%, rush 100%, receiving 97%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
JMU
SDSU
pass rate, all downs
46%89th
45%96th
pass rate, standard downs
41%76th
36%112th
pass rate, 1st down
46%46th
44%62nd
no-huddle share
90%22nd
94%16th
pass rate, passing downs
59%95th
62%80th
pass rate, red zone
33%92nd
42%51st
seconds per play (own drives)
27.790th
26.1121st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
JMU offence
JMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.293
269
26 of 138
success rate
0.476
269
42 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
269
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.245
269
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
269
27 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.005
269
55 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.368
269
40 of 138
pass: success rate
0.458
269
57 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.527
269
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.525
269
42 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
269
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.231
269
54 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.154
269
54 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.773
269
54 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.562
269
36 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.104
269
17 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
269
24 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.037
269
22 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.900
269
124 of 138
SDSU offence
SDSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.085
268
133 of 138
success rate
0.347
268
130 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
268
111 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.034
268
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.350
268
130 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.866
268
96 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.109
268
135 of 138
pass: success rate
0.353
268
127 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.535
268
73 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.393
268
132 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
268
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.940
268
94 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.203
268
107 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
268
131 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
268
97 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.172
268
113 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
268
100 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.071
268
113 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.900
268
32 of 138
JMU defence
JMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.197
287
1 of 138
success rate
0.275
287
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.380
287
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.142
287
19 of 138
rush: success rate
0.261
287
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.061
287
108 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.130
287
9 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
287
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.687
287
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.311
287
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.230
287
30 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.369
287
22 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.196
287
73 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
287
112 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.478
287
18 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
287
89 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.118
287
106 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.059
287
63 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
287
82 of 138
SDSU defence
SDSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.097
294
84 of 138
success rate
0.442
294
107 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.049
294
16 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
294
56 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
294
119 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.677
294
13 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.247
294
96 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
294
99 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.542
294
67 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
294
106 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
294
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.393
294
128 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.111
294
5 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
294
122 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.400
294
71 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.099
294
1 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.058
294
4 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
20 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.900
294
8 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs