Betting
Spread
JMU favouredMarket SDSU −3Ours SDSU −1.3
SDSU favouredgap 1.7 toward JMU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| JMU away | +3.0 | 21.8 | +114 | 44.9% | — |
| SDSU home | -3.0 | 24.8 | -135 | 55.1% | — |
| Total | 46.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| JMU away | +1.5 | 22.6 | 45.3% | -1.5 |
| SDSU home | -1.5 | 23.9 | 54.7% | +1.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| JMU away | -5.5 | 24.2 | 65.1% | -8.5 |
| SDSU home | +5.5 | 18.6 | 34.9% | +8.5 |
| Total | 42.7 | | | -3.8 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | JMU | SDSU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -2.485th | -3.091st |
| Defence (cards) | -0.575th | -0.677th |
| Card team rating | -2.984th | -3.588th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +9.936th | -7.8100th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.346th | -0.385th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.641st | -0.594th |
| Card line | SDSU -1.3 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 8% | 99% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Camden Coleman JMU76 ▲3 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.263
Completion62.5%
TD–INT7-1
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game207
Rush yards, median game12
Games this season4
Team throws per game28.5
Jayden Denegal SDSU74 ▼1 overall · Senior
Points added per play-0.064
Completion56.1%
TD–INT5-5
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game172
Rush yards, median game0
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| JMU away | 4-0 | 100% | +18.4 | 2-2 | +7.5 |
| SDSU home | 0-4 | 0% | -12.1 | 2-2 | -1.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Snapdragon Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| JMU | Z. Collins WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Collins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Marshall on Saturday. |
| JMU | J. Evans QB | questionable Wrist | Sun, Sep 27 | Evans is dealing with a wrist injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Marshall on Saturday, October 3th. |
| SDSU | A. Doe WR | out Undisclosed | Fri, Oct 2 | Aldrich has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | D. Brown WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Brown is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is expected to play Saturday against Boise State |
| SDSU | J. Bostick WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Bostick is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is expected to play Saturday against Texas State |
| SDSU | P. Guiltinan TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Guiltinan is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely if he will suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | J. Ellis TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ellis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely if he will suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | R. Wolfer TE | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Wolfer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | L. Sutton RB | questionable Ankle | Tue, Sep 29 | Sutton is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | J. Kinnard RB | questionable Knee | Tue, Sep 29 | Kinnard is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday. |