Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ND wins about 100% of the time at a number like ours.
RICE
Games
4
Plays per game
63.8
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-15.1 (119th, offence 119th, defence 116th)
Returning production
39% (pass -317%, rush 77%, receiving 54%)
ND
Games
4
Plays per game
64.5
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
28.1 (3rd, offence 4th, defence 2nd)
Returning production
51% (pass 91%, rush 12%, receiving 38%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
RICE
ND
pass rate, all downs
25%134th
45%91st
pass rate, standard downs
18%134th
42%66th
pass rate, 1st down
17%135th
42%73rd
no-huddle share
58%76th
61%71st
pass rate, red zone
5%138th
36%79th
pass rate, passing downs
43%135th
58%98th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.532nd
31.220th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
RICE offence
RICE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.069
255
102 of 138
success rate
0.447
255
61 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
255
121 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.127
255
70 of 138
rush: success rate
0.489
255
33 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.986
255
62 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.059
255
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.333
255
130 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.648
255
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.527
255
41 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.239
255
120 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.353
255
33 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
255
28 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
255
39 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.833
255
74 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
255
64 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.110
255
111 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
255
9 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
76.400
255
2 of 138
ND offence
ND offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.333
258
13 of 138
success rate
0.516
258
13 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.116
258
122 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.142
258
65 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
258
38 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
258
114 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.563
258
11 of 138
pass: success rate
0.558
258
11 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.459
258
96 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.599
258
6 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.214
258
132 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.943
258
93 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.153
258
53 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
258
62 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.286
258
6 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.101
258
16 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.035
258
3 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
258
101 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
258
44 of 138
RICE defence
RICE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.137
261
98 of 138
success rate
0.429
261
97 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.289
261
92 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.152
261
117 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
261
88 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.141
261
126 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.150
261
74 of 138
pass: success rate
0.442
261
105 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
261
59 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.489
261
101 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.310
261
97 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.766
261
61 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.184
261
52 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
261
40 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.280
261
122 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
261
44 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
261
86 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.038
261
14 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
261
14 of 138
ND defence
ND defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.119
225
15 of 138
success rate
0.342
225
24 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.138
225
37 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.229
225
8 of 138
rush: success rate
0.304
225
12 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.812
225
30 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.021
225
26 of 138
pass: success rate
0.374
225
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.378
225
25 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.390
225
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.253
225
44 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.321
225
16 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
225
103 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
225
77 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.625
225
2 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.240
225
135 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
225
134 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.071
225
99 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.300
225
76 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs