Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). RUTG wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
MSU
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
0.3 (67th, offence 80th, defence 58th)
Returning production
21% (pass 16%, rush 19%, receiving 24%)
RUTG
Games
4
Plays per game
68.5
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-1.6 (75th, offence 42nd, defence 112th)
Returning production
44% (pass 10%, rush 93%, receiving 55%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MSU
RUTG
pass rate, all downs
46%84th
50%58th
pass rate, standard downs
39%95th
42%62nd
pass rate, 1st down
42%81st
52%16th
no-huddle share
21%110th
97%8th
pass rate, passing downs
68%49th
69%41st
pass rate, red zone
38%70th
40%61st
seconds per play (own drives)
32.410th
30.145th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MSU offence
MSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.033
266
115 of 138
success rate
0.444
266
65 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.082
266
130 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
266
117 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
266
95 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.848
266
104 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
266
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.483
266
41 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.347
266
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.505
266
55 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
266
98 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.923
266
97 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.204
266
108 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
266
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.346
266
105 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.192
266
128 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.128
266
130 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
266
94 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.300
266
105 of 138
RUTG offence
RUTG offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.135
274
77 of 138
success rate
0.482
274
37 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
274
40 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.024
274
106 of 138
rush: success rate
0.489
274
34 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.766
274
123 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.334
274
49 of 138
pass: success rate
0.477
274
45 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.861
274
12 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.508
274
52 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.418
274
12 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.133
274
69 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.161
274
61 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
274
94 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.963
274
67 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
274
76 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.062
274
22 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.084
274
129 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.000
274
99 of 138
MSU defence
MSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
232
103 of 138
success rate
0.427
232
96 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.234
232
72 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.060
232
81 of 138
rush: success rate
0.455
232
110 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.854
232
42 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.212
232
90 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
232
53 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.723
232
114 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
232
97 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.301
232
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.759
232
58 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.260
232
128 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
232
35 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
232
86 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.151
232
52 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.095
232
62 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
232
58 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.300
232
75 of 138
RUTG defence
RUTG defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.149
241
101 of 138
success rate
0.436
241
103 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
241
58 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.117
241
103 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
241
120 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.900
241
65 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.307
241
114 of 138
pass: success rate
0.415
241
83 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.589
241
85 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
241
110 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.297
241
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.002
241
93 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.200
241
77 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
241
86 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.652
241
90 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
241
37 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
241
73 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.037
241
12 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.000
241
34 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs