Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ILL wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
ILL
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
9.5
SP+
8.5 (41st, offence 24th, defence 69th)
Returning production
21% (pass 3%, rush 34%, receiving 31%)
NU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.7
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
7.3 (50th, offence 59th, defence 34th)
Returning production
89% (pass 94%, rush 88%, receiving 86%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ILL
NU
pass rate, all downs
52%37th
45%92nd
pass rate, standard downs
44%46th
44%45th
pass rate, 1st down
44%58th
49%23rd
no-huddle share
19%112th
11%120th
pass rate, red zone
61%4th
48%24th
pass rate, passing downs
75%18th
47%132nd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.531st
30.826th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ILL offence
ILL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.284
246
28 of 138
success rate
0.516
246
11 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.273
246
51 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.261
246
20 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
246
16 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
246
45 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.323
246
51 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
246
18 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.475
246
90 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.564
246
15 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.385
246
24 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.451
246
26 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.114
246
11 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
246
103 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
246
63 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.114
246
31 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
246
7 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
246
109 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
246
48 of 138
NU offence
NU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.304
188
21 of 138
success rate
0.463
188
49 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
188
45 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.156
188
54 of 138
rush: success rate
0.410
188
98 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.978
188
65 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.540
188
13 of 138
pass: success rate
0.537
188
13 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.649
188
46 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
188
78 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.411
188
14 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.835
188
104 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.190
188
93 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
188
29 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.111
188
12 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
188
56 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.112
188
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.021
188
4 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.400
188
41 of 138
ILL defence
ILL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.193
274
120 of 138
success rate
0.445
274
112 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.269
274
88 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.123
274
105 of 138
rush: success rate
0.414
274
80 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.039
274
103 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.279
274
107 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
274
127 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.478
274
52 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.490
274
102 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
274
111 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.766
274
60 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
274
83 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.783
274
103 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.864
274
105 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
274
28 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.069
274
15 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
274
70 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.600
274
59 of 138
NU defence
NU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.083
222
80 of 138
success rate
0.441
222
106 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
222
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
222
100 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
222
124 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.868
222
46 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
222
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.405
222
74 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
222
33 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.515
222
123 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
222
27 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.429
222
131 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.142
222
17 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
222
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.421
222
17 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
222
72 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
222
7 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
222
131 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
222
67 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs