Betting
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ORE away | -17.0 | — | 86.6% | — |
| MSU home | +17.0 | — | 13.4% | — |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | ORE | MSU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +6.020th | -2.282nd |
| Defence (cards) | +3.111th | +0.847th |
| Card team rating | +9.016th | -1.370th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +21.68th | +0.367th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.09th | +0.157th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.69th | +0.160th |
| Card line | MSU +16.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 75% | 21% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Dylan Raiola ORE82 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.889
Completion83.3%
TD–INT5-0
Pass attempts, median game18
Pass yards, median game207
Rush yards, median game-5
Games this season2
Team throws per game36.2
Alessio Milivojevic MSU74 ▼1 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.103
Completion67.0%
TD–INT3-3
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game189
Rush yards, median game-13
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| ORE away | 2-2 | 50% | -3.5 | 4-0 | +10.5 |
| MSU home | 2-1-1 | 67% | +2.5 | 1-3 | -6.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Spartan Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| ORE | D. Moore QB | questionable Concussion | Wed, Sep 30 | Moore is dealing with a concussion injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | J. Lott WR | questionable Hand | Sun, Sep 27 | Lott is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | I. Hooks WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Hooks is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | J. Johnson TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Johnson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | D. Gresham WR | questionable Neck | Sun, Sep 27 | Gresham is hampered by a neck injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | S. Price RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Price is nursing due to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | K. Harrison TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Harrison is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | J. McClellan WR | out Foot | Mon, Sep 21 | McClellan is sidelined due to a foot injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| MSU | C. Edwards RB | questionable Knee | Sat, Sep 26 | Edwards exited the game with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against the Wisconsin on Saturday, October 3rd. |