Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MICH wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
UCLA
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
13.8 (24th, offence 16th, defence 40th)
Returning production
57% (pass 55%, rush 86%, receiving 34%)
MICH
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
14.3 (22nd, offence 52nd, defence 9th)
Returning production
69% (pass 104%, rush 59%, receiving 60%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UCLA
MICH
pass rate, all downs
41%117th
42%115th
pass rate, standard downs
34%118th
35%115th
pass rate, 1st down
37%107th
35%111th
no-huddle share
19%111th
24%105th
pass rate, red zone
30%108th
27%120th
pass rate, passing downs
61%83rd
61%85th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.534th
29.657th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UCLA offence
UCLA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.287
265
27 of 138
success rate
0.494
265
30 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.253
265
58 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.407
265
2 of 138
rush: success rate
0.573
265
5 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.064
265
31 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
265
103 of 138
pass: success rate
0.394
265
101 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.668
265
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.552
265
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
265
50 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.975
265
1 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.096
265
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
265
20 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.343
265
45 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
265
53 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
265
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.075
265
118 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.700
265
134 of 138
MICH offence
MICH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.164
246
66 of 138
success rate
0.435
246
77 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.174
246
96 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.034
246
103 of 138
rush: success rate
0.401
246
103 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.781
246
118 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.433
246
26 of 138
pass: success rate
0.495
246
32 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.634
246
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
246
110 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.397
246
19 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.170
246
64 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.127
246
21 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
246
68 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.280
246
108 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
246
60 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
246
40 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
246
88 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
246
15 of 138
UCLA defence
UCLA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.127
275
12 of 138
success rate
0.327
275
16 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.347
275
110 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.105
275
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.328
275
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.799
275
28 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.119
275
11 of 138
pass: success rate
0.333
275
19 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.845
275
128 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.389
275
21 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.220
275
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.365
275
21 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
275
124 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
275
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
275
51 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.185
275
105 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.105
275
79 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
275
117 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
275
136 of 138
MICH defence
MICH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.090
241
21 of 138
success rate
0.311
241
9 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.200
241
57 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.133
241
22 of 138
rush: success rate
0.314
241
16 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.728
241
21 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.064
241
16 of 138
pass: success rate
0.310
241
12 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.684
241
106 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.377
241
16 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
241
9 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.628
241
48 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
241
102 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
241
67 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.053
241
7 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
241
90 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.137
241
120 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
241
18 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.900
241
64 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs