Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UCLA wins about 97% of the time at a number like ours.
NEV
Games
4
Plays per game
64.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-6.5 (95th, offence 103rd, defence 87th)
Returning production
36% (pass -130%, rush -12%, receiving 41%)
UCLA
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
13.8 (24th, offence 16th, defence 40th)
Returning production
57% (pass 55%, rush 86%, receiving 34%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NEV
UCLA
pass rate, all downs
44%99th
41%117th
pass rate, standard downs
37%107th
34%118th
pass rate, 1st down
42%76th
37%107th
no-huddle share
73%57th
19%111th
pass rate, passing downs
59%92nd
61%83rd
pass rate, red zone
28%117th
30%108th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.5111th
30.534th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NEV offence
NEV offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.093
256
96 of 138
success rate
0.414
256
99 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.295
256
44 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.218
256
35 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
256
31 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.089
256
23 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.015
256
128 of 138
pass: success rate
0.324
256
133 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.691
256
35 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.466
256
95 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
256
76 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.236
256
52 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
256
100 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
256
112 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.045
256
62 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.129
256
47 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
256
42 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.055
256
74 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
256
28 of 138
UCLA offence
UCLA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.287
265
27 of 138
success rate
0.494
265
30 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.253
265
58 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.407
265
2 of 138
rush: success rate
0.573
265
5 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.064
265
31 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
265
103 of 138
pass: success rate
0.394
265
101 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.668
265
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.552
265
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
265
50 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.975
265
1 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.096
265
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
265
20 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.343
265
45 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
265
53 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
265
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.075
265
118 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.700
265
134 of 138
NEV defence
NEV defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.149
304
100 of 138
success rate
0.421
304
90 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
304
31 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.125
304
108 of 138
rush: success rate
0.438
304
103 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.874
304
52 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.271
304
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
304
93 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.535
304
64 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.474
304
89 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
304
91 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.272
304
120 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.146
304
22 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
304
33 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.240
304
61 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.112
304
7 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
304
6 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
304
39 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.800
304
43 of 138
UCLA defence
UCLA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.127
275
12 of 138
success rate
0.327
275
16 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.347
275
110 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.105
275
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.328
275
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.799
275
28 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.119
275
11 of 138
pass: success rate
0.333
275
19 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.845
275
128 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.389
275
21 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.220
275
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.365
275
21 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
275
124 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
275
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
275
51 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.185
275
105 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.105
275
79 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
275
117 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
275
136 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs