Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ORE wins about 69% of the time at a number like ours.
ORE
Games
4
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
21.6 (8th, offence 5th, defence 25th)
Returning production
75% (pass 95%, rush 68%, receiving 64%)
ILL
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
9.5
SP+
8.5 (41st, offence 24th, defence 69th)
Returning production
21% (pass 3%, rush 34%, receiving 31%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ORE
ILL
pass rate, all downs
54%25th
52%37th
pass rate, standard downs
45%42nd
44%46th
no-huddle share
38%91st
19%112th
pass rate, 1st down
46%45th
44%58th
pass rate, passing downs
76%15th
75%18th
pass rate, red zone
38%69th
61%4th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.8104th
30.531st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ORE offence
ORE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.328
289
14 of 138
success rate
0.478
289
41 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.414
289
16 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.225
289
33 of 138
rush: success rate
0.473
289
47 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.001
289
56 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.414
289
28 of 138
pass: success rate
0.480
289
43 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.777
289
22 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.515
289
48 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
289
22 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.360
289
32 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.122
289
19 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.810
289
32 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.029
289
15 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
289
21 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
289
30 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
289
26 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.200
289
108 of 138
ILL offence
ILL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.284
246
28 of 138
success rate
0.516
246
11 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.273
246
51 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.261
246
20 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
246
16 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
246
45 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.323
246
51 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
246
18 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.475
246
90 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.564
246
15 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.385
246
24 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.451
246
26 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.114
246
11 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
246
103 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
246
63 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.114
246
31 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
246
7 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
246
109 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
246
48 of 138
ORE defence
ORE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.003
268
49 of 138
success rate
0.373
268
57 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.239
268
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.041
268
75 of 138
rush: success rate
0.378
268
53 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.901
268
67 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.036
268
39 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
268
54 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.540
268
66 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.410
268
36 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.294
268
84 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.685
268
55 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.185
268
54 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
85 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
268
67 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
268
60 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.049
268
1 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.108
268
136 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.100
268
70 of 138
ILL defence
ILL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.193
274
120 of 138
success rate
0.445
274
112 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.269
274
88 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.123
274
105 of 138
rush: success rate
0.414
274
80 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.039
274
103 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.279
274
107 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
274
127 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.478
274
52 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.490
274
102 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
274
111 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.766
274
60 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
274
83 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.783
274
103 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.864
274
105 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
274
28 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.069
274
15 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
274
70 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.600
274
59 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs