Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NU wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
NU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.7
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
7.3 (50th, offence 59th, defence 34th)
Returning production
89% (pass 94%, rush 88%, receiving 86%)
MSU
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
0.3 (67th, offence 80th, defence 58th)
Returning production
21% (pass 16%, rush 19%, receiving 24%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NU
MSU
pass rate, all downs
45%92nd
46%84th
pass rate, passing downs
47%132nd
68%49th
no-huddle share
11%120th
21%110th
pass rate, standard downs
44%45th
39%95th
pass rate, 1st down
49%23rd
42%81st
pass rate, red zone
48%24th
38%70th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.826th
32.410th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NU offence
NU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.304
188
21 of 138
success rate
0.463
188
49 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
188
45 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.156
188
54 of 138
rush: success rate
0.410
188
98 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.978
188
65 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.540
188
13 of 138
pass: success rate
0.537
188
13 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.649
188
46 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
188
78 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.411
188
14 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.835
188
104 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.190
188
93 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
188
29 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.111
188
12 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
188
56 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.112
188
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.021
188
4 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.400
188
41 of 138
MSU offence
MSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.033
266
115 of 138
success rate
0.444
266
65 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.082
266
130 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
266
117 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
266
95 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.848
266
104 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
266
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.483
266
41 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.347
266
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.505
266
55 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
266
98 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.923
266
97 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.204
266
108 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
266
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.346
266
105 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.192
266
128 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.128
266
130 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
266
94 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.300
266
105 of 138
NU defence
NU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.083
222
80 of 138
success rate
0.441
222
106 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
222
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
222
100 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
222
124 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.868
222
46 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
222
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.405
222
74 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
222
33 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.515
222
123 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
222
27 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.429
222
131 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.142
222
17 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
222
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.421
222
17 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
222
72 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
222
7 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
222
131 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
222
67 of 138
MSU defence
MSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
232
103 of 138
success rate
0.427
232
96 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.234
232
72 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.060
232
81 of 138
rush: success rate
0.455
232
110 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.854
232
42 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.212
232
90 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
232
53 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.723
232
114 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
232
97 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.301
232
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.759
232
58 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.260
232
128 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
232
35 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
232
86 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.151
232
52 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.095
232
62 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
232
58 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.300
232
75 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs