Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). USC wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
USC
Games
5
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
17.8 (13th, offence 3rd, defence 49th)
Returning production
59% (pass 91%, rush 78%, receiving 27%)
PSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
16.9 (15th, offence 28th, defence 12th)
Returning production
8% (pass 3%, rush -2%, receiving 14%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USC
PSU
pass rate, all downs
50%57th
43%111th
pass rate, standard downs
41%80th
35%116th
pass rate, 1st down
38%103rd
29%131st
no-huddle share
82%43rd
85%36th
pass rate, passing downs
78%10th
65%57th
pass rate, red zone
41%55th
33%93rd
seconds per play (own drives)
29.851st
27.984th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USC offence
USC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.307
361
19 of 138
success rate
0.535
361
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.187
361
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.082
361
85 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
361
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.829
361
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.564
361
10 of 138
pass: success rate
0.592
361
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
361
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
361
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.467
361
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
361
49 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
361
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.793
361
43 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.611
361
31 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
361
8 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.047
361
10 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
361
42 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
361
94 of 138
PSU offence
PSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.220
275
55 of 138
success rate
0.418
275
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.299
275
42 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.102
275
78 of 138
rush: success rate
0.409
275
99 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.929
275
81 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.391
275
32 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
275
72 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.813
275
17 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
275
92 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.270
275
106 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.835
275
105 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.136
275
34 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
275
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.967
275
66 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
275
33 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.058
275
19 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
275
79 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.800
275
126 of 138
USC defence
USC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.191
294
119 of 138
success rate
0.422
294
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.363
294
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.080
294
89 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
294
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.961
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.424
294
127 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
294
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.724
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
294
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.374
294
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.587
294
41 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.193
294
68 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
294
94 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.179
294
119 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
294
9 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
294
30 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
21 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
294
125 of 138
PSU defence
PSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.103
241
19 of 138
success rate
0.315
241
10 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
241
47 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
241
74 of 138
rush: success rate
0.339
241
31 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.129
241
125 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.164
241
3 of 138
pass: success rate
0.296
241
6 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.207
241
4 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.365
241
11 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.224
241
23 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.529
241
33 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.229
241
109 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
241
50 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.636
241
88 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.195
241
114 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.112
241
94 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.083
241
120 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.300
241
131 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs