Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). USC wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
WASH
Games
4
Plays per game
64.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 45th, defence 18th)
Returning production
54% (pass 94%, rush 52%, receiving 34%)
USC
Games
5
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
17.8 (13th, offence 3rd, defence 49th)
Returning production
59% (pass 91%, rush 78%, receiving 27%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WASH
USC
pass rate, all downs
59%5th
50%57th
pass rate, standard downs
53%6th
41%80th
pass rate, 1st down
53%10th
38%103rd
no-huddle share
6%130th
82%43rd
pass rate, passing downs
78%9th
78%10th
pass rate, red zone
43%46th
41%55th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.974th
29.851st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WASH offence
WASH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
258
73 of 138
success rate
0.446
258
64 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
258
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
258
92 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
258
110 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.892
258
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.272
258
65 of 138
pass: success rate
0.476
258
47 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.391
258
117 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.492
258
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
258
82 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.815
258
110 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.221
258
122 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.615
258
119 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.862
258
73 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
258
54 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
258
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.047
258
56 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
258
74 of 138
USC offence
USC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.307
361
19 of 138
success rate
0.535
361
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.187
361
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.082
361
85 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
361
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.829
361
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.564
361
10 of 138
pass: success rate
0.592
361
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.497
361
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
361
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.467
361
3 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
361
49 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
361
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.793
361
43 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.611
361
31 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.089
361
8 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.047
361
10 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
361
42 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
361
94 of 138
WASH defence
WASH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.148
256
6 of 138
success rate
0.344
256
26 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.161
256
46 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.208
256
9 of 138
rush: success rate
0.321
256
20 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.741
256
22 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.003
256
30 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
256
61 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.554
256
70 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.381
256
18 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.273
256
59 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.323
256
17 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.305
256
135 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.333
256
1 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.609
256
23 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.203
256
119 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.121
256
111 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
256
119 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
256
50 of 138
USC defence
USC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.191
294
119 of 138
success rate
0.422
294
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.363
294
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.080
294
89 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
294
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.961
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.424
294
127 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
294
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.724
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
294
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.374
294
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.587
294
41 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.193
294
68 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
294
94 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.179
294
119 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
294
9 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
294
30 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
294
21 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
294
125 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs