Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NEB wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
MD
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
3.9 (55th, offence 56th, defence 54th)
Returning production
54% (pass 87%, rush 142%, receiving 26%)
NEB
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
16.9 (15th, offence 20th, defence 22nd)
Returning production
46% (pass 5%, rush 30%, receiving 74%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MD
NEB
pass rate, all downs
58%10th
43%104th
pass rate, standard downs
54%5th
38%96th
pass rate, 1st down
55%7th
36%109th
no-huddle share
72%58th
78%48th
pass rate, passing downs
68%45th
57%103rd
pass rate, red zone
40%60th
35%84th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4114th
29.559th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MD offence
MD offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.132
294
79 of 138
success rate
0.452
294
57 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.239
294
63 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.138
294
67 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
294
84 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.042
294
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.129
294
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.461
294
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.507
294
53 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.309
294
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.882
294
99 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.234
294
126 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
294
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
294
98 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
294
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
294
64 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
294
78 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.200
294
75 of 138
NEB offence
NEB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.414
281
6 of 138
success rate
0.498
281
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.439
281
8 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.344
281
5 of 138
rush: success rate
0.494
281
29 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.259
281
5 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.499
281
17 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
281
31 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.658
281
45 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.517
281
44 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.449
281
4 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.408
281
28 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
281
51 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
281
87 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.192
281
9 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.110
281
23 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.071
281
34 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
281
32 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
281
87 of 138
MD defence
MD defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.029
245
67 of 138
success rate
0.380
245
60 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.221
245
67 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.051
245
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.367
245
46 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
245
56 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.169
245
78 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
245
88 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.572
245
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.416
245
43 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.319
245
106 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.334
245
18 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.227
245
108 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
245
63 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.150
245
117 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
245
65 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
245
97 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.045
245
31 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.300
245
37 of 138
NEB defence
NEB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.018
235
43 of 138
success rate
0.366
235
46 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.241
235
78 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.002
235
60 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
235
37 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
235
106 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.107
235
12 of 138
pass: success rate
0.349
235
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.342
235
20 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
235
82 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.190
235
7 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.898
235
75 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.182
235
51 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
235
108 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.611
235
24 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
235
121 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.136
235
119 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.068
235
90 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
235
96 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs