Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). PSU wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
WIS
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
6.9 (51st, offence 84th, defence 19th)
Returning production
31% (pass -500%, rush 32%, receiving 34%)
PSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
16.9 (15th, offence 28th, defence 12th)
Returning production
8% (pass 3%, rush -2%, receiving 14%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WIS
PSU
pass rate, all downs
53%36th
43%111th
pass rate, standard downs
48%22nd
35%116th
pass rate, 1st down
49%32nd
29%131st
no-huddle share
7%128th
85%36th
pass rate, passing downs
62%75th
65%57th
pass rate, red zone
36%81st
33%93rd
seconds per play (own drives)
31.023rd
27.984th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WIS offence
WIS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.142
246
75 of 138
success rate
0.423
246
89 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.391
246
19 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.183
246
44 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
246
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.241
246
6 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.176
246
88 of 138
pass: success rate
0.488
246
36 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.507
246
81 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
246
82 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.300
246
85 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.948
246
92 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.154
246
55 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
246
127 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
246
106 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
246
99 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
246
55 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.081
246
127 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
246
98 of 138
PSU offence
PSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.220
275
55 of 138
success rate
0.418
275
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.299
275
42 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.102
275
78 of 138
rush: success rate
0.409
275
99 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.929
275
81 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.391
275
32 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
275
72 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.813
275
17 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
275
92 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.270
275
106 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.835
275
105 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.136
275
34 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
275
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.967
275
66 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.116
275
33 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.058
275
19 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
275
79 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.800
275
126 of 138
WIS defence
WIS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.051
259
30 of 138
success rate
0.340
259
22 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.042
259
13 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
259
88 of 138
rush: success rate
0.338
259
30 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
259
51 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.030
259
24 of 138
pass: success rate
0.372
259
46 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.187
259
3 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.428
259
53 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.163
259
2 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.928
259
85 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.105
259
1 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
259
72 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.474
259
75 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
259
73 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.077
259
34 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.085
259
123 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
259
116 of 138
PSU defence
PSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.103
241
19 of 138
success rate
0.315
241
10 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
241
47 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
241
74 of 138
rush: success rate
0.339
241
31 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.129
241
125 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.164
241
3 of 138
pass: success rate
0.296
241
6 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.207
241
4 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.365
241
11 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.224
241
23 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.529
241
33 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.229
241
109 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
241
50 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.636
241
88 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.195
241
114 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.112
241
94 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.083
241
120 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.300
241
131 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs