ILL at OSU — DeskEdges

Game News Mismatches Team Personnel Betting Results

Line has moved +2.0 since we first saw it (OSU -27.5 to OSU -25.5).

Betting

Spread

ILL favoured

Market OSU −25.5Ours OSU −28.4

OSU favoured

gap 2.9 toward OSU

Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.

Vegas

Team	Spread	Points	Moneyline	Win%	Kalshi
ILL away	+25.5	14.0	+1600	5.7%	5%
OSU home	-25.5	39.5	-4000	94.3%	97%
Total	53.5

OSU -27.5 when first seen, now OSU -25.5 · total 53.5 then, 53.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.

Our model — cards

Team	Spread	Points	Win%	vs book
ILL away	+28.5	12.5	3.7%	+3.0
OSU home	-28.5	41.0	96.3%	-3.0
Total	no total model

FEI — bcftoys.com

Team	Spread	Points	Win%	vs book
ILL away	+19.5	17.6	8.7%	-6.0
OSU home	-19.5	36.9	91.3%	+6.0
Total	54.5			+1.0

"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.

Team ratings

Points vs an average FBS team	ILL	OSU
Offence (cards)	+3.436th	+12.81st
Defence (cards)	-0.367th	+4.33rd
Card team rating	+3.243rd	+17.01st
SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs)	+8.541st	+28.82nd
FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs)	+0.436th	+1.43rd
F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs)	+0.738th	+2.23rd
Card line	OSU -28.4 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field)
Returning production	21%	68%

Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.

Quarterbacks

Katin Houser ILL84 ▲1 overall · Senior

Points added per play0.429

Completion68.6%

TD–INT9-2

Pass attempts, median game32

Pass yards, median game267

Rush yards, median game16

Games this season4

Team throws per game29.5

Julian Sayin OSU94 overall · Junior

Points added per play0.628

Completion72.2%

TD–INT10-1

Pass attempts, median game29

Pass yards, median game299

Rush yards, median game-7

Games this season4

Team throws per game33.2

The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.

Against the number

Team	ATS	Cover%	vs spread	O/U	vs total
ILL away	2-2	50%	-2.6	4-0	+7.0
OSU home	3-1	75%	+1.3	3-1	+2.8

Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.

Streak trends

No 4+ streak in any split for either side.

Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.

Venue, weather, rest and travel

Venue	Ohio Stadium · turf · 711 ft
Forecast at kickoff	66°F, wind 7 mph, rain 0.00 in
Rest	ILL 6 days · OSU 7 days
Travel	ILL 276 miles, body clock 11:00am at kickoff, -22 ft elevation

Who is out (reported)

Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.

Covers.com injury tags

Team	Player	Status	Since	Note
ILL	K. Feagin TE	questionable Undisclosed	Thu, Oct 1	Feagin is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Purdue on Saturday.
ILL	J. Eberhart WR	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Eberhart is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will take the field against Purdue on Saturday, October 3rd.
ILL	J. Forster RB	questionable Knee	Sat, Sep 26	Forster is nursing with a knee injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Purdue on Saturday, October 3rd.
ILL	J. Harvey WR	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Purdue on Saturday, October 3rd.
ILL	W. Vala III TE	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Vala III is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will take the field against Purdue on Saturday, October 3rd.
ILL	N. Rankin WR	questionable Leg	Sat, Sep 26	Rankin is nursing with a leg injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Purdue on Saturday, October 3rd.
ILL	K. Alston WR	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Alston is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Purdue on Saturday, October 3rd.
ILL	J. Platt WR	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Platt is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will partake against Purdue on Saturday, October 3rd.
ILL	D. Brown LB	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Brown is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will partake against Purdue on Saturday, October 3rd.
ILL	M. Clement RB	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Clement is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Purdue on Saturday, October 3rd.
ILL	G. Smith TE	out Undisclosed	Sun, Aug 23	Smith is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.
ILL	B. Thurman TE	out Foot	Thu, Aug 13	Thurman is laid up with foot surgery, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.
ILL	A. Perry WR	out Shoulder	Thu, Aug 13	Perry is batting with a shoulder injury and will undergo surgery, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
ILL	T. Hollinger TE	out Undisclosed	Tue, Aug 11	Hollinger has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season
OSU	B. Jackson RB	questionable Shoulder	Mon, Sep 28	Jackson is dealing with an Shoulder injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd.
OSU	K. Parker WR	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Parker is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd.
OSU	L. Bey RB	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Bey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be determined if he will face Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd.
OSU	Z. Grady DL	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Grady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd.
OSU	A. Valerio-Hudson WR	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Valerio-Hudson has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd.