Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MICH wins about 87% of the time at a number like ours.
IOWA
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
14.8 (19th, offence 51st, defence 10th)
Returning production
34% (pass 16%, rush 20%, receiving 56%)
MICH
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
14.3 (22nd, offence 52nd, defence 9th)
Returning production
69% (pass 104%, rush 59%, receiving 60%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
IOWA
MICH
pass rate, all downs
50%52nd
42%115th
pass rate, standard downs
45%44th
35%115th
pass rate, 1st down
43%65th
35%111th
no-huddle share
4%133rd
24%105th
pass rate, passing downs
64%63rd
61%85th
pass rate, red zone
50%20th
27%120th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.265th
29.657th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
IOWA offence
IOWA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.172
263
65 of 138
success rate
0.430
263
81 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.279
263
49 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.232
263
31 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
263
89 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.342
263
3 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.194
263
83 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
263
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.219
263
136 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
263
49 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.241
263
118 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.495
263
22 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
263
27 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.529
263
132 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
263
82 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.099
263
14 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.046
263
8 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
263
67 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
263
103 of 138
MICH offence
MICH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.164
246
66 of 138
success rate
0.435
246
77 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.174
246
96 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.034
246
103 of 138
rush: success rate
0.401
246
103 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.781
246
118 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.433
246
26 of 138
pass: success rate
0.495
246
32 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.634
246
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
246
110 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.397
246
19 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.170
246
64 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.127
246
21 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
246
68 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.280
246
108 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
246
60 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
246
40 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
246
88 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
246
15 of 138
IOWA defence
IOWA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.145
243
8 of 138
success rate
0.300
243
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.038
243
12 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.244
243
6 of 138
rush: success rate
0.319
243
19 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.385
243
2 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.068
243
51 of 138
pass: success rate
0.301
243
8 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.787
243
120 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.355
243
8 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.209
243
15 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.604
243
44 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.193
243
67 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
243
75 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.167
243
9 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
243
81 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
243
40 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.091
243
129 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.100
243
133 of 138
MICH defence
MICH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.090
241
21 of 138
success rate
0.311
241
9 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.200
241
57 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.133
241
22 of 138
rush: success rate
0.314
241
16 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.728
241
21 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.064
241
16 of 138
pass: success rate
0.310
241
12 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.684
241
106 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.377
241
16 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
241
9 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.628
241
48 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
241
102 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
241
67 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.053
241
7 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
241
90 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.137
241
120 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
241
18 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.900
241
64 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs