Betting
Spread
IOWA favouredMarket MICH −4.5Ours MICH −18
MICH favouredgap 13.5 toward MICH
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| IOWA away | +4.5 | 17.5 | +180 | 34.3% | 34% |
| MICH home | -4.5 | 22.0 | -218 | 65.7% | 67% |
| Total | 39.5 | |
MICH -5.5 when first seen, now MICH -4.5 · total 38.5 then, 39.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| IOWA away | +18.0 | 10.8 | 12.4% | +13.5 |
| MICH home | -18.0 | 28.7 | 87.6% | -13.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| IOWA away | +2.0 | 19.9 | 44.4% | -2.5 |
| MICH home | -2.0 | 21.9 | 55.6% | +2.5 |
| Total | 41.7 | | | +2.2 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | IOWA | MICH |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -1.272nd | +4.432nd |
| Defence (cards) | +0.846th | +3.57th |
| Card team rating | -0.465th | +7.919th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +14.819th | +14.322nd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.817th | +0.719th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.217th | +1.118th |
| Card line | MICH -18.0 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 34% | 69% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Hank Brown IOWA73 ▲4 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.324
Completion68.0%
TD–INT5-0
Pass attempts, median game25
Pass yards, median game172
Rush yards, median game6
Games this season4
Team throws per game32.0
Bryce Underwood MICH83 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.274
Completion62.0%
TD–INT5-2
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game197
Rush yards, median game42
Games this season4
Team throws per game23.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| IOWA away | 3-1 | 75% | +5.1 | 1-3 | -3.0 |
| MICH home | 2-2 | 50% | -4.8 | 1-3 | -5.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Michigan Stadium · turf · 838 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 71°F, wind 7 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | IOWA 6 days · MICH 7 days |
| Travel | IOWA 403 miles, body clock 2:30pm at kickoff, +115 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| IOWA | D. Vonnahme TE | probable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Vonnahme is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, it is anticipated that he will suit up against the Michigan on Saturday, September 26th. |
| IOWA | K. Moulton RB | probable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Moulton is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Michigan on Saturday, September 26th. |
| IOWA | L. Phillips Jr. RB | questionable Ankle | Tue, Sep 22 | Phillips Jr is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday. |
| MICH | A. Marsh WR | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Marsh is dealing with a undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Minnesota on Saturday. |
| MICH | J. Daley DL | questionable Lower Body | Mon, Sep 28 | Daley is dealing with a lower body injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Minnesota on Tuesday. |
| MICH | A. Sprague OG | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Sprague is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday. |
| MICH | L. Forbes WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Forbes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Iowa on Saturday. |
| MICH | H. Hansen TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Hansen is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face UTEP on Saturday, September 19th. |