Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UCLA wins about 89% of the time at a number like ours.
PUR
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
-6.4 (94th, offence 57th, defence 120th)
Returning production
48% (pass 97%, rush 61%, receiving 22%)
UCLA
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
13.8 (24th, offence 16th, defence 40th)
Returning production
57% (pass 55%, rush 86%, receiving 34%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
PUR
UCLA
pass rate, all downs
56%20th
41%117th
pass rate, standard downs
48%19th
34%118th
pass rate, 1st down
49%27th
37%107th
no-huddle share
44%88th
19%111th
pass rate, passing downs
76%14th
61%83rd
pass rate, red zone
51%17th
30%108th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.463rd
30.534th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
PUR offence
PUR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.237
286
45 of 138
success rate
0.465
286
48 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.198
286
86 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.083
286
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
286
88 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.883
286
88 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.399
286
30 of 138
pass: success rate
0.506
286
28 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.408
286
109 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.507
286
54 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
286
44 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.027
286
85 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.159
286
57 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
286
46 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.630
286
86 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
286
57 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
286
99 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.031
286
16 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
286
18 of 138
UCLA offence
UCLA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.287
265
27 of 138
success rate
0.494
265
30 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.253
265
58 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.407
265
2 of 138
rush: success rate
0.573
265
5 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.064
265
31 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
265
103 of 138
pass: success rate
0.394
265
101 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.668
265
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.552
265
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
265
50 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.975
265
1 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.096
265
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
265
20 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.343
265
45 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
265
53 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
265
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.075
265
118 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.700
265
134 of 138
PUR defence
PUR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.351
258
138 of 138
success rate
0.500
258
136 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.366
258
114 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.300
258
135 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
258
136 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.054
258
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.412
258
126 of 138
pass: success rate
0.469
258
119 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.827
258
125 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
258
132 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.413
258
135 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.319
258
124 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.151
258
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
258
93 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
258
136 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
258
38 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
258
38 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
258
61 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
258
98 of 138
UCLA defence
UCLA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.127
275
12 of 138
success rate
0.327
275
16 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.347
275
110 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.105
275
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.328
275
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.799
275
28 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.119
275
11 of 138
pass: success rate
0.333
275
19 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.845
275
128 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.389
275
21 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.220
275
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.365
275
21 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
275
124 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
275
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
275
51 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.185
275
105 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.105
275
79 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
275
117 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
275
136 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs