Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ND wins about 98% of the time at a number like ours.
MSU
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
9.8
SP+
0.3 (67th, offence 80th, defence 58th)
Returning production
21% (pass 16%, rush 19%, receiving 24%)
ND
Games
4
Plays per game
64.5
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
28.1 (3rd, offence 4th, defence 2nd)
Returning production
51% (pass 91%, rush 12%, receiving 38%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MSU
ND
pass rate, all downs
46%84th
45%91st
pass rate, standard downs
39%95th
42%66th
pass rate, 1st down
42%81st
42%73rd
no-huddle share
21%110th
61%71st
pass rate, passing downs
68%49th
58%98th
pass rate, red zone
38%70th
36%79th
seconds per play (own drives)
32.410th
31.220th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MSU offence
MSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.033
266
115 of 138
success rate
0.444
266
65 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.082
266
130 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
266
117 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
266
95 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.848
266
104 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
266
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.483
266
41 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.347
266
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.505
266
55 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
266
98 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.923
266
97 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.204
266
108 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
266
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.346
266
105 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.192
266
128 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.128
266
130 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
266
94 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.300
266
105 of 138
ND offence
ND offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.333
258
13 of 138
success rate
0.516
258
13 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.116
258
122 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.142
258
65 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
258
38 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
258
114 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.563
258
11 of 138
pass: success rate
0.558
258
11 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.459
258
96 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.599
258
6 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.214
258
132 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.943
258
93 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.153
258
53 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
258
62 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.286
258
6 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.101
258
16 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.035
258
3 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
258
101 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
258
44 of 138
MSU defence
MSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
232
103 of 138
success rate
0.427
232
96 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.234
232
72 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.060
232
81 of 138
rush: success rate
0.455
232
110 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.854
232
42 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.212
232
90 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
232
53 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.723
232
114 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
232
97 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.301
232
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.759
232
58 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.260
232
128 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
232
35 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
232
86 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.151
232
52 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.095
232
62 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
232
58 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.300
232
75 of 138
ND defence
ND defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.119
225
15 of 138
success rate
0.342
225
24 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.138
225
37 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.229
225
8 of 138
rush: success rate
0.304
225
12 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.812
225
30 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.021
225
26 of 138
pass: success rate
0.374
225
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.378
225
25 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.390
225
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.253
225
44 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.321
225
16 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
225
103 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
225
77 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.625
225
2 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.240
225
135 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
225
134 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.071
225
99 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.300
225
76 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs