Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WASH wins about 95% of the time at a number like ours.
USU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-9.3 (105th, offence 121st, defence 78th)
Returning production
65% (pass 87%, rush 74%, receiving 49%)
WASH
Games
4
Plays per game
64.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 45th, defence 18th)
Returning production
54% (pass 94%, rush 52%, receiving 34%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USU
WASH
pass rate, all downs
54%24th
59%5th
pass rate, standard downs
51%9th
53%6th
pass rate, 1st down
54%9th
53%10th
no-huddle share
91%20th
6%130th
pass rate, passing downs
60%90th
78%9th
pass rate, red zone
37%75th
43%46th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.7130th
28.974th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USU offence
USU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.071
263
132 of 138
success rate
0.361
263
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.315
263
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.103
263
132 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
263
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.853
263
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.032
263
130 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
263
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.738
263
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.363
263
137 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.358
263
41 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.074
263
77 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.208
263
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.300
263
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.810
263
135 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
263
125 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
263
78 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.091
263
136 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
263
97 of 138
WASH offence
WASH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
258
73 of 138
success rate
0.446
258
64 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
258
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
258
92 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
258
110 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.892
258
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.272
258
65 of 138
pass: success rate
0.476
258
47 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.391
258
117 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.492
258
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
258
82 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.815
258
110 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.221
258
122 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.615
258
119 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.862
258
73 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
258
54 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
258
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.047
258
56 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
258
74 of 138
USU defence
USU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.021
296
62 of 138
success rate
0.405
296
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.133
296
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.008
296
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.408
296
73 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.006
296
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.044
296
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.404
296
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.221
296
5 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
296
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.292
296
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.602
296
43 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
296
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
296
80 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.037
296
53 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
296
32 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
296
21 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
296
82 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.600
296
113 of 138
WASH defence
WASH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.148
256
6 of 138
success rate
0.344
256
26 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.161
256
46 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.208
256
9 of 138
rush: success rate
0.321
256
20 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.741
256
22 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.003
256
30 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
256
61 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.554
256
70 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.381
256
18 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.273
256
59 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.323
256
17 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.305
256
135 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.333
256
1 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.609
256
23 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.203
256
119 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.121
256
111 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
256
119 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
256
50 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs