Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MD wins about 87% of the time at a number like ours.
MD
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
3.9 (55th, offence 56th, defence 54th)
Returning production
54% (pass 87%, rush 142%, receiving 26%)
CONN
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-3.7 (85th, offence 79th, defence 93rd)
Returning production
2% (pass 3%, rush 0%, receiving 2%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MD
CONN
pass rate, all downs
58%10th
46%85th
pass rate, standard downs
54%5th
38%101st
pass rate, 1st down
55%7th
39%99th
no-huddle share
72%58th
87%27th
pass rate, passing downs
68%45th
64%62nd
pass rate, red zone
40%60th
22%128th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4114th
27.889th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MD offence
MD offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.132
294
79 of 138
success rate
0.452
294
57 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.239
294
63 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.138
294
67 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
294
84 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.042
294
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.129
294
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.461
294
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
294
115 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.507
294
53 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.309
294
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.882
294
99 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.234
294
126 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
294
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
294
98 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
294
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
294
64 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
294
78 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.200
294
75 of 138
CONN offence
CONN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.231
260
50 of 138
success rate
0.435
260
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.421
260
13 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.207
260
38 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
260
63 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.021
260
48 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.368
260
41 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
260
80 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.963
260
6 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.480
260
83 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
260
52 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.239
260
51 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
260
71 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
260
107 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.625
260
30 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
260
45 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
260
73 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
260
28 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
260
65 of 138
MD defence
MD defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.029
245
67 of 138
success rate
0.380
245
60 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.221
245
67 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.051
245
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.367
245
46 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
245
56 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.169
245
78 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
245
88 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.572
245
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.416
245
43 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.319
245
106 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.334
245
18 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.227
245
108 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
245
63 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.150
245
117 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
245
65 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
245
97 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.045
245
31 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.300
245
37 of 138
CONN defence
CONN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.019
290
61 of 138
success rate
0.386
290
64 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.255
290
85 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.014
290
54 of 138
rush: success rate
0.381
290
54 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.874
290
53 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.066
290
48 of 138
pass: success rate
0.393
290
71 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.502
290
60 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
290
61 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.283
290
74 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.648
290
52 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.212
290
91 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
290
29 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.720
290
30 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
290
79 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
290
45 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.086
290
124 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
290
69 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs