Betting
Spread
MD favouredMarket MD −11.5Ours MD −18.5
CONN favouredgap 7 toward MD
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| MD away | -11.5 | 32.0 | -455 | 78.7% | — |
| CONN home | +11.5 | 20.5 | +350 | 21.3% | — |
| Total | 52.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MD away | -18.5 | 35.5 | 88.1% | -7.0 |
| CONN home | +18.5 | 17.0 | 11.9% | +7.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MD away | -8.5 | 29.5 | 72.3% | +3.0 |
| CONN home | +8.5 | 20.9 | 27.7% | -3.0 |
| Total | 50.4 | | | -2.1 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | MD | CONN |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +4.234th | -4.6110th |
| Defence (cards) | +1.140th | -1.3102nd |
| Card team rating | +5.336th | -5.9108th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +3.955th | -3.785th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.170th | -0.597th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.162nd | -0.592nd |
| Card line | CONN +18.5 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 54% | 2% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Malik Washington MD84 ▲2 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.108
Completion66.0%
TD–INT6-4
Pass attempts, median game40
Pass yards, median game267
Rush yards, median game4
Games this season4
Team throws per game40.5
Kalieb Osborne CONN74 ▲3 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.438
Completion61.4%
TD–INT7-2
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game215
Rush yards, median game58
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| MD away | 2-2 | 50% | -6.5 | 3-1 | +3.5 |
| CONN home | 2-2 | 50% | +9.8 | 2-2 | +4.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Pratt & Whitney Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| MD | P. Howard TE | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Howard is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will face against Nebraska on Saturday. |
| MD | I. Howard RB | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Howard is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will face against Nebraska on Saturday. |
| MD | D. Williams RB | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will face against Nebraska on Saturday. |
| MD | C. Williams QB | probable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Williams is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, it is anticipated that he will play against the UCLA on Saturday, September 26th. |
| MD | L. Johnson DL | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Johnson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be available on Saturday against UCLA. |
| MD | Z. Mathis LB | out Leg | Thu, Aug 13 | Mathis is battling with a leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season. |
| CONN | J. Merklinger QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Merklinger is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face So. Miss on Saturday, September 19th. |