Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). OSU wins about 100% of the time at a number like ours.
BALL
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-25.0 (135th, offence 133rd, defence 133rd)
Returning production
6% (pass 0%, rush -104%, receiving 32%)
OSU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
28.8 (2nd, offence 1st, defence 2nd)
Returning production
68% (pass 94%, rush 55%, receiving 50%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BALL
OSU
pass rate, all downs
53%29th
51%44th
pass rate, standard downs
49%17th
43%59th
pass rate, 1st down
45%50th
44%64th
no-huddle share
50%83rd
10%121st
pass rate, passing downs
61%81st
79%7th
pass rate, red zone
52%14th
39%64th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.825th
30.242nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BALL offence
BALL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.047
246
110 of 138
success rate
0.337
246
133 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.417
246
14 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.090
246
83 of 138
rush: success rate
0.357
246
127 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.156
246
13 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.072
246
109 of 138
pass: success rate
0.339
246
128 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.596
246
57 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.392
246
133 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
246
115 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.542
246
132 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.214
246
118 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
246
7 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.625
246
87 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.199
246
132 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.138
246
134 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
246
84 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
246
34 of 138
OSU offence
OSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.394
271
8 of 138
success rate
0.524
271
7 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.342
271
24 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.175
271
48 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
271
68 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.024
271
44 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.663
271
3 of 138
pass: success rate
0.607
271
2 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.579
271
64 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.572
271
10 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
271
37 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.201
271
58 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
271
70 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.783
271
48 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.111
271
13 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
271
24 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.063
271
23 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
271
59 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.200
271
107 of 138
BALL defence
BALL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.325
270
136 of 138
success rate
0.452
270
118 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.455
270
132 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
270
133 of 138
rush: success rate
0.420
270
83 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.352
270
136 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.455
270
131 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
270
129 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.556
270
72 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
270
105 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
270
123 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.010
270
94 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
270
59 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
270
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.042
270
133 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
270
11 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.074
270
25 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
270
27 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.400
270
55 of 138
OSU defence
OSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.081
269
23 of 138
success rate
0.353
269
33 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.211
269
64 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.042
269
42 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
269
100 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.945
269
80 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.137
269
7 of 138
pass: success rate
0.275
269
2 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.588
269
83 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.398
269
28 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.282
269
71 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.791
269
62 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
269
69 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
269
49 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.778
269
33 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.208
269
125 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.104
269
78 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.104
269
135 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.700
269
128 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs